Apple (AAPL) was in focus on Tuesday as GF Securities said a recent survey on the tech giant’s supply chain suggests a “solid outlook.”
Shares fell fractionally in premarket trading.
“Following the earnings call on Jan. 29, 2026, we did a supply chain research which indicates strong iPhone build momentum (incl. 2H26’s models) as well as cost management aiming to keep the starting selling prices of iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max unchanged or at [a] similar level of iPhone 17 Pro/Pro Max,” analyst Jeff Pu wrote in a note to clients. “Additionally, [the] Gemini partnership is to work on the Apple foundational model to power the Apple Intelligence, including the personalized Siri, which is the next key to watch in WWDC 2026.”
Pu reiterated his Buy rating and upped his price target to $233 on the back of higher 2026 and 2027 estimates.
Delving deeper, Pu said the upcoming fiscal third-quarter should see another “strong” iPhone build, with around 54M units, which would suggest a year-over-year acceleration.
“For 2H26, we note that Apple is expected to launch 3 new iPhone 18 models (Pro, Pro Max, Fold), compared to 4 iPhone 17 models a year ago,” Pu added. “Yet, we expect a solid iPhone 18 build plan in 2H26 of 82m, compared to 89m of iPhone 17 in 2H25, despite [a] much higher [average] selling price. We attribute the key drivers to the new foldable model and Apple’s strategy of keeping iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max pricing largely the same as that of iPhone 17 Pro/Pro Max by managing memory/display cost. That said, we expect a significant iPhone ASP increase in CY2H26 driven by mix.”
On the company’s recent earnings call, Apple management, led by CEO Tim Cook, said revenue is expected to grow between 13% and 16% year-over-year.
Looking to the cost of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, Pu said the recent impact of surging memory prices should be manageable.
“For DRAM, we believe Apple has been negotiating with Samsung Memory and SK Hynix to reach favorable deals, considering Apple’s support in the past memory downcycle and the likely capital investments,” the analyst explained. “For NAND, we estimate the cost to be up ~70% QoQ in F2Q and suppliers are asking for 50-60% QoQ in F3Q. Overall, we expect the BOM cost of memory to increase from 9-10% in F1Q to 12-13% in F3Q. To partially offset the cost of memory price and 2nm A20 Pro, we expect efforts on other big items such as display, cameras, etc.”