Goldman Sachs said the sharp rally in U.S. energy equities this year does not mark the end of the trade, identifying 10 Buy-rated stocks that it believes still offer above-average upside despite the sector’s strong outperformance.
The S&P 500 Energy (XLE) sector has climbed about 23% year to date, compared with a roughly 1% gain for the broader market, as investors rotated into cyclicals amid firmer oil prices, improved growth expectations, and tighter-than-expected supply balances.
The bank said the move has been driven by positive GDP revisions, a broader rotation out of technology, and geopolitical uncertainty supporting crude prices. Goldman continues to anchor valuations to a mid-cycle framework of $70 per barrel Brent and $3.75 per MMBtu Henry Hub and estimates its 10 highlighted names offer an average total return potential of about 19% from current levels.
The list spans refining, global oils, exploration and production, midstream, oilfield services, and power generation.
In refining, HF Sinclair (DINO) is favored for its balance sheet strength, non-refining earnings contributions, and capital return profile. Among global oils and upstream names, Goldman highlighted ConocoPhillips (COP) for its expected free cash flow inflection as major projects ramp up, while EQT Corporation (EQT), Viper Energy (VNOM), and Diamondback Energy (FANG) are considered offering attractive risk-reward on the back of low-cost inventory and shareholder return frameworks.
In midstream and LNG, Kinder Morgan (KMI), Cheniere Energy (LNG), and Golar LNG (GLNG) are viewed as offering earnings visibility through contracted cash flows and project backlogs. In oilfield services, Halliburton (HAL) is considered positioned to benefit from improving international activity and margin expansion. In power generation, Vistra (VST) is expected to see upside from additional power purchase agreements and stable cash flows from its contracted fleet.
Price targets imply double-digit upside for most of the names, with Cheniere Energy, Golar LNG, and Vistra offering among the highest total return potential on Goldman’s estimates.