Nvidia (NVDA) is likely to offer a “typical” upside of between $2B and $3B when it reports fourth-quarter results, investment firm Oppenheimer said.
“We see ‘typical’ $2B-$3B upside potential to Street F4Q (Jan.)/F1Q (Apr.) sales $65.6B/$71.6B led by GB300 Ultra,” analyst Rick Schafer wrote in a note to clients. “[Cloud service provider] capex continues to increase. Expected $650B in CY26 vs. >$400B in CY25. Frontier LLM size growing 10x/year. Reasoning tokens growing >5x. NVDA rack-scale NVL72 remains the clear leader in AI performance/watt. Vera Rubin (VR200) on track for volume/production ramp F3Q, followed by VR300 Ultra early 3Q27.”
Delving deeper, Schafter said the average selling price for Vera Rubin is likely to be between 40% and 50% above that of GB300, which sold for roughly $3.5M. As such, Vera Rubin could add roughly $8B in revenue to Nvidia, Schafer added.
Additionally, with China now in the mix (representing a possible $50B total addressable market), that could boost Nvidia’s total addressable market even higher, now estimated to be around $4T, Schafer said. “NVDA is the ubiquitous AI platform best positioned to win, in our view,” the analyst wrote.
Schafer reiterated his Outperform rating and $265 target on Nvidia.
