Home Depot (HD) is set to report fourth-quarter earnings before the market opens on Tuesday, February 24.
Wall Street expects EPS of $2.52, down 19.5% year over year, on revenue of $38.1B, a 4.0% decline from the prior-year period.
Over the past year, Home Depot has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time and topped revenue estimates 75% of the time. However, estimate trends have turned more cautious in recent months. Over the past three months, analysts have made 15 downward EPS revisions versus just one upward revision. Revenue estimates have seen eight upward revisions and five downward revisions during the same period.
Investors will be watching for commentary around fiscal 2026 and signs of stabilization in home improvement demand amid a still-challenging housing and interest rate environment.
In Q3, comparable sales increased 0.2% for the quarter that ended on November 2, missing the consensus expectation for an increase of 1.4%. CEO Ted Decker said at the time that the company’s results missed expectations primarily due to the lack of storms in the quarter, which resulted in greater than expected pressure in certain categories.
The home improvement firm also cut its full-year earnings expectation, which was chiefly due to the expectation for cautious consumer spending amid a soft housing market.
Though shares in the stock have had a good start to 2026, up over 10% YTD, the stock has been relatively muted over the past year. Wall Street maintains a Buy rating on the stock, while Seeking Alpha’s Quant model remains at Hold, reflecting concerns around growth and valuation.
SA author Justin Purohit also takes a neutral stance ahead of the release, noting that shares have held up relatively well despite softness in the housing market, with management’s outlook for housing demand through 2026 likely to be a key focus. He views the stock as fairly valued in the current environment.
By contrast, contributor Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA, retains a Sell rating, arguing that recent weakness in the stock may only be the beginning as margins stay under pressure. He also highlights that valuation remains elevated relative to profitability, while macro risks tied to the housing cycle have intensified lately.