J.P. Morgan downgraded Novo Nordisk (NVO) on Tuesday after the Danish drugmaker posted late-stage trial data indicating that its next-gen weight loss therapy CagriSema trailed Eli Lilly’s (LLY) GLP-1 therapy tirzepatide, marketed as Zepbound.
Citing data from its REDEFINE 4 trial, Novo (NVO) announced on Monday that CagriSema, a combination of its FDA-approved GLP-1 drug semaglutide and amylin analogue, cagrilintide, generated only ~20% of weight loss over 84 weeks, compared to Zepbound’s 23.6%.
With a new June 2027 price target of DKR 250, J.P. Morgan analyst Richard Vosser downgraded NVO to Neutral from Overweight, noting a limited commercial uptake for CagriSema after REDEFINE 4 data.
The analyst also based his thesis on results from the company’s REIMAGINE 2 and 3 trials, which indicated a weaker effect on the blood glucose levels of patients with Type 2 diabetes who took the drug. As a result, Vosser has slashed his sales forecasts for CagriSema by 40%–63% for 2027–2030 and for amycretin, NVO’s GLP-1/amylin receptor agonist, by 1%–23% for 2029–2030.
The revised estimates prompted the analyst to lower his forecasts for Novo’s (NVO) 2026–2030 sales and adjusted EPS by 2%–16% and 2%–17%, respectively, which stand at 5%–21% below the Bloomberg consensus.