Prediction market Polymarket is signaling a sharp shift in expectations around who will ultimately acquire Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), after Paramount Skydance (PSKY) submitted an improved offer.
Earlier this week, Polymarket traders had favored Netflix (NFLX) to close the deal, assigning it a 51% probability versus 37% for Paramount. However, following Paramount’s revised bid, odds flipped. As of Wednesday afternoon, Paramount’s implied probability rose to as much as 50%, while Netflix fell to 38%.
The “no deal by June 30, 2027” outcome stood at 10%, with Comcast (CMCSA) at 3%.
The move comes as Paramount Skydance (PSKY) raised its offer to $31 per WBD share in cash, along with a ticking fee equivalent to $0.25 per quarter beginning after Sept. 30. In response, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) responded Tuesday evening to the latest improved buyout offer from Paramount Skydance (PSKY), saying that Paramount’s bid “could reasonably be expected to lead to a ‘Company Superior Proposal'” as defined in its existing merger agreement with Netflix (NFLX).
Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition? (Polymarket) 
Meanwhile, options markets show investors hedging outcomes. A trader wagered nearly $14M that Netflix shares would rally if it ultimately loses the bidding war. According to Bloomberg data, the trader purchased 55,000 May $90 call options on Wednesday while simultaneously selling 55,000 May $105 calls to partially fund the position. The call-spread strategy cost roughly $2.51 per contract, or about $13.8M in total, and provides exposure to 5.5M shares if Netflix rises from its current level near $83.
Netflix shares rose nearly 6% on Wednesday at $82.71. The streaming giant would receive a $2.8B termination fee if its bid fails.