Rigetti Computing (RGTI) shares slid more than 4% in premarket trading as Wall Street analysts weighed in on the quantum computing company’s fourth-quarter results and technical updates.
Jefferies analyst Kevin Garrigan said that while revenue was a “touch light” compared to what Wall Street was expecting, Rigetti’s management pointed to a “sharp” step-up in the coming quarter, based on Novera system sales.
“We’re encouraged by the early system-sales cadence building into 2026, including two Novera on‑prem deliveries in 1H26, a Novera QPU sale to a Japanese research organization (shipping in April and rev‑rec in Q2), and the $8.4M 108‑qubit C‑DAC system slated for 2H26,” Garrigan wrote in a note to clients. “On the technology side, the story continues to develop, with RGTI showing meaningful progress in both speed and error rates, including strong two‑qubit fidelity results using its proprietary adiabatic CZ scheme at 28ns, alongside continued improvements across the QPU portfolio. Importantly, management reiterated its timeline to deploy the 108‑qubit system by the end of March, and we view that delivery as the near-term tell that underwrites the next legs of the roadmap (>150 qubits by end‑2026 and >1,000 qubits by end‑2027).”
Garrigan reiterated his Hold rating on Rigetti and lowered his price target to $20 from $30.
Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton also lowered his price target on Rigetti following the results, cutting it to $31 from $51, due to multiple compression in the sector.
Nonetheless, Bolton took some confidence from management’s upbeat tone for the rest of 2026.
“In September 2025, the company received ~$5.7MM for two of its 9-qubit Novera QPU systems. Rigetti expects to recognize slightly less than half of the total amount in 1Q26, with the remainder in 2Q26,” Bolton explained. “Management noted these two system sales will carry lower GM as a dilution fridge is included in the delivery. Revenue from the 9-qubit Novera QPU sale to the Japan-based organization is expected to be recognized in 2Q26. Lastly, revenue from the Cepheus-1-108Q system sale to C-DAC is expected to be recognized in 2H26. As such, we now model FY26 revenue of $21.0MM (vs. our prior estimate of $18.5MM).”