Earnings Call Insights: Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Q4 2025
Management View
- CEO Subodh Kulkarni described 2025 as “a year of technical validation and disciplined execution,” highlighting advances in fidelity, scale, and architecture. Kulkarni emphasized, “Our focus remains reaching true commercially meaningful quantum advantage, not headline milestones.” He reported a 2-qubit gate fidelity of up to 99.9% at a 28-nanosecond gate speed on a ProDrive platform, achieved via the proprietary Adiabatic CZ scheme. Median 2-qubit gate fidelities were reported as 99.7% for the 9-qubit system, 99.6% for the 36-qubit system, and 99% on the 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system.
- The company deployed multiple systems to the cloud, including an 84-qubit monolithic chip system and a 36-qubit chiplet system. Kulkarni noted, “We demonstrated that chiplet timing works in practice. That matters because scaling to thousands of qubits on a single die is not realistic. Chiplets are how we believe quantum systems will scale in the real world.”
- Key commercial progress included an $8.4 million order from India’s C-DAC for a 108-qubit on-premises quantum computer, scheduled for deployment in the second half of 2026, and $5.7 million in purchase orders for two 9-qubit Novera systems. Kulkarni also announced a Novera QPU sale to a Japanese research organization, with delivery set for April 2026, marking Rigetti’s first QPU in Japan.
- Strategic partnerships were highlighted, including collaborations with Riverlane for quantum error correction, NVIDIA for NVQLink integration, and QphoX for optical readout research. Kulkarni described the company’s open modular architecture as a differentiator.
- CFO Jeffrey Bertelsen stated, “For the fourth quarter of 2025, revenue was $1.9 million, compared to $2.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.” He added, “Gross margins for the fourth quarter were 35% compared to 44% in Q4 of last year.” Bertelsen also shared, “Total operating expenses for the fourth quarter were $23.2 million compared to $19.5 million in the same period last year.”
Outlook
- Kulkarni stated, “Looking ahead, 2026 is about execution and scaling. Our near-term priority is completing deployment of the 108-qubit system at 99.5% median 2-qubit gate fidelity, which we expect around the end of March.” He further outlined, “Our focus is to deploy a system with more than 150-qubits with an anticipated 99.7% median 2-qubit gate fidelity around end of December 2026.” For 2027, the company targets “a system of more than 1,000 qubits with an anticipated 99.8% median 2-qubit gate fidelity by or around the end of 2027.”
- Bertelsen indicated revenue recognition for the $5.7 million Novera sales will be split between the first and second quarters of 2026, and the $8.4 million C-DAC order will be recognized in the second half of 2026.
Financial Results
- Revenue for Q4 2025 was $1.9 million, down from $2.3 million in Q4 2024. Gross margin for the quarter was 35%, compared to 44% the prior year. Operating expenses rose to $23.2 million from $19.5 million, with stock-based compensation at $5.6 million versus $3.4 million last year.
- Operating loss was $22.6 million compared to $18.5 million in Q4 2024. Non-GAAP net loss was $11.3 million or $0.03 per share, compared to $14 million or $0.06 per share in the prior year quarter. The company ended the year with approximately $590 million in cash and no debt.
Q&A
- Kevin Garrigan, Jefferies: Asked about gating items for delivering the 108-qubit system and foundry capacity. Kulkarni explained the system is on track for deployment by the end of March and clarified, “We do offer Fab-1 as a foundry to select customers, specifically the DOE, DoD and The U.K. National Government.”
- Troy Jensen, Cantor Fitzgerald: Sought clarification on fidelity metrics and gate speed progress. Kulkarni stated, “When we deploy this 108-qubit systems towards the end of March, our 1-qubit gate fidelity will continue to be at 99.9%, and our 2-qubit gate fidelity, the median number is expected to be about 99.5%.”
- Quinn Bolton, Needham: Inquired about gross margin expectations for the Novera and C-DAC orders. Bertelsen declined to provide specifics for competitive reasons but noted, “Our typical Novera systems without the dilution refrigeration have very high margins.”
- David Williams: Asked about the NVIDIA partnership and M&A landscape. Kulkarni highlighted the hybrid computing vision and said, “We would certainly be open to M&A if it helps accelerate our roadmap,” but indicated the current plan is primarily organic.
- Sreekrishnan Sankarnarayanan, TD Cowen: Questioned fab expansion and government funding. Kulkarni emphasized the existing fab’s sufficiency “for the next 3 years” and described ongoing government funding initiatives in the U.S., U.K., and India.
- Craig Ellis, B. Riley: Sought details on Novera sales in Japan and pipeline. Kulkarni confirmed the QPU sale to a Japanese organization and growing international demand for on-premises systems. Bertelsen noted, “The Novera to the Japanese organization, we expect that to ship in April and to rev rec in Q2.”
- Tyler Perry Anderson, Craig-Hallum: Asked about the Japanese customer’s setup and the Riverlane partnership. Kulkarni described the Novera as “a perfect solution to get your researchers familiar with quantum computing” and detailed Riverlane’s role in error correction integration.
- John McPeake, Rosenblatt: Asked about the timeline for the 150-plus and 1,000-plus qubit systems. Kulkarni reiterated, “Absolutely, 150 plus around the end of this year and more than 1,000 around the end of next year. That’s the plan.”
- Brian Kinstlinger, Alliance Global Partners: Sought insights into the evaluation process in Japan and India. Kulkarni cited “our open modular approach and our chiplet approach” as key differentiators.
Sentiment Analysis
- Analysts focused on technical milestones, commercial orders, and strategic direction, with a neutral to slightly positive tone. Questions highlighted confidence in the technical roadmap but probed for details on execution and differentiation.
- Management maintained a confident and disciplined tone in prepared remarks, emphasizing “credible long-term progress.” In Q&A, responses were factual and assertive, especially regarding technical differentiation and strategic partnerships. Kulkarni frequently reiterated confidence in the company’s roadmap and technological leadership.
- Compared to the previous quarter, analyst tone shifted to more granular technical and commercial queries, while management’s confidence level appeared steady, with increased emphasis on execution milestones and competitive positioning.
Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison
- Guidance language shifted from projecting milestones to reporting achieved technical progress and specifying deployment timelines. The company now reports two-qubit and one-qubit fidelities to clarify industry comparisons.
- Strategic focus advanced from planning for chiplet-based systems to demonstrating practical deployments and addressing scale-related technical challenges.
- Analysts’ questions evolved from general technology roadmap and CapEx planning to detailed inquiries about product readiness, customer pipeline, and revenue recognition.
- Key metrics such as cash position and operating loss were updated. Management’s tone remained confident, stressing organic execution and the sufficiency of the current fab for the near term.
Risks and Concerns
- Revenue variability was acknowledged as “expected and does not change how we manage the business or allocate capital,” attributed to system delivery timing and government contract activity.
- Gross margin declines were linked to contract mix, with lower-margin strategic contracts supporting system validation and ecosystem integration.
- Ongoing investments and rising operating expenses were tied to R&D and system integration.
- Management stated that quarterly results will continue to “reflect the early stage nature of the market.”
- Analyst concerns included potential fab expansion and the pace of government funding, both addressed by management’s emphasis on existing capacity and ongoing funding initiatives.
Final Takeaway
Rigetti management described the past year as one of disciplined technical progress, with new milestones in qubit fidelity and chiplet-based architecture supporting confidence in scaling quantum systems. Key orders from India and Japan, along with continued government and research institution demand, reinforce the commercial strategy. The company reiterated a focus on organic growth, strong partnerships, and a roadmap that aims for a 1,000-plus qubit system by the end of 2027, supported by a robust cash position and strategic clarity around technical and operational risks.