Anthropic’s (ANTHRO) CFO Krishna Rao noted in a court filing that the U.S. government’s action of blacklisting the company could reduce Anthropic’s 2026 revenue by multiple billions of dollars.
“Across Anthropic’s entire business, and adjusting for how likely any given customer is to take a maximal reading, the government’s actions could reduce Anthropic’s 2026 revenue by multiple billions of dollars,” said Rao in a filing.
Anthropic has filed lawsuits against the U.S. Department of War after the department dropped its contract with the AI startup and labeled it a “supply-chain risk” due to ideological differences.
Last month, Anthropic — which is backed by Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet’s (GOOG) (GOOGL) Google — had rejected the Department of War’s demand for unrestricted access to its AI models. U.S. agencies, including the departments of State, Treasury, and Health and Human Services, are going to stop the use of Anthropic’s AI products, joining the Pentagon in switching to rivals like OpenAI under the new White House order.
“If the government’s actions are allowed to stand, and if the ripple effect described above comes to pass, it would be almost impossible to reverse,” said Rao.
Rao noted that as far as customers adopt a narrow reading — wherethe government’s actions are understood to prohibit only the use of Claude in work performed for the Department — the company estimates that hundreds of millions of 2026 revenue are at risk.
Rao added that Anthropic could lose 50% to 100% in revenue from defense contractors and others with dependence on the Defense Department.
Meanwhile, Anthropic’s Chief Commercial Officer Paul Smith said in a separate filing that if the government’s actions are allowed to stand, it will have significant consequences on Anthropic’s business partnerships.
Smith said that one partner, which has a multi-million-dollar annual contract, immediately switched from Claude to a competing generative AI model for a deployment by their end customer, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
“That switch instantly eliminated an anticipated revenue pipeline worth more than one hundred million dollars,” said Smith.
Smith cited another example, noting the company’s negotiations with three leading financial services institutions have been impacted since the government’s actions, one of which is valued at $100M and had been on the verge of closing.
He added that two of the other firms have made clear that they cannot close their anticipated deals, valued together at over $80M, unless they get newly requested provisions allowing for unilateral contract termination.
In addition, Smith said that Anthropic has received inquiries from over 100 enterprise customers “expressing deep fear, confusion, and doubt about Anthropic and the repercussions of associating with our company.”
Last week it was reported that Microsoft (MSFT), Google, and Amazon (AMZN) have confirmed that they will keep Anthropic’s AI technology embedded in their products for clients, excluding the U.S. Department of War.