Apple likely to ship 4-5M MacBook Neos this year, expand tech giant’s brand: analysts

Apple’s (AAPL) MacBook Neo, which was unveiled last week, became officially available for purchase on Wednesday. And given the early reception towards the low-cost device, industry analysts believe it may just be the start of a deeper push for the tech giant.

TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said the next version of the MacBook Neo, which he dubs the Neo 2, may not feature touch support, despite his belief that it was originally expected to do so.

And while the MacBook Neo only went into “small-volume production” in December (with mass production three months later than expected), shipments this year may only be around 4.5M to 5M, Kuo added. “For a single laptop model, that’s still a very strong number,” Kuo wrote in a blog post.

However, he believes that Neo shipments should see steady momentum this year for two reasons: back-to-school and holiday shopping, as well as the competition likely being unable to compete on price by the end of the first-half of the year, due to memory prices. “As a result, more laptop models may start raising prices from 2Q26 to reflect higher memory costs, making it harder to compete with Neo,” Kuo added.

Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said the MacBook Neo, which starts at $599 (or $499 for education), helped “fill the gap” in Apple’s MacBook portfolio, allowing it to strongly go after the education market, where Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) Chromebooks and Microsoft (MSFT) Surface devices are popular.

“[The] MacBook Neo launch firmly positions Apple in the mid-range PC market, where it’ll see greater competition from traditional PC OEMs,” Daryanani wrote in a note to clients. “In addition, Neo reinforces Apple’s flywheel effect by bringing more price-sensitive consumers into the Mac ecosystem, deepening cross-device engagement through iPhone integration features like Handoff that could ultimately drive incremental hardware and services monetization.”

J.P. Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee agreed and said he thinks the Neo will allow Apple to “significantly” increase its computer market share, going after Chromebooks and Windows devices.

“We believe MacBook Neo positions Apple to significantly ramp market share, given higher volumes typically associated with the lower price segment of the market,” Chatterjee explained. “Additionally, MacBook Neo leverages A18 Pro, the chipset that powered iPhone 16 Pros and already has a well-established supply chain – helping smooth execution on delivering the new product.”

(This story has been updated with additional information.)

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