If history repeats itself, Nvidia’s (NVDA) upcoming GTC 2026 could provide another catalyst for the stock.
“We’re NVDA buyers ahead of the event, and while history certainly does not repeat itself, we would highlight the historically strong performance NVDA stock has shown following GTC over the past few years (3-mo post-GTC NVDA outperformed SOX by ~30%+; range: +12%-45%),” said Wells Fargo analysts, led by Aaron Rakers, in an investor note.
Tech sector investors will certainly be focused on the event, which runs from March 16-19 in San Jose, Calif. The company’s messaging highlights OpenAI (OPENAI), Google DeepMind (GOOG)(GOOGL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA) as participating in main stage or marquee sessions. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will give a keynote address at 2 p.m. ET on Monday. Huang will also moderate an industry panel at 3:30 pm ET on Wednesday.
GF Securities believes the event might not only be a catalyst for Nvidia but for the entire semiconductor sector. Nvidia is expected to reveal its second-generation co-packaged optic switch. This will likely feature Taiwan Semiconductor’s (TSM) co-packaged optic technology, but volume is not expected to ramp up until 2027, when it hits 80,000, analysts at the firm said. Other potential announcements include updates on its Feynman line of GPUs – its Kyber NVL576 line of racks.
Bank of America is also high on Nvidia ahead of the event, reiterating its Buy rating and $300 price target.
“While we don’t expect an official 2027-28 sales outlook, any color around the Rubin ramp (CY27-28) could help the currently depressed stock (at a historical low of 17x fwd PE), following a strong Blackwell ramp with $0.5Tn in cumulative sales,” said BofA analyst Vivek Arya.
Wells Fargo anticipates Nvidia providing an update on its pipeline.
“$500B+ pipeline expansion + elongation (through CY27?) + add’l context to NVDA’s disclosure that it has cumulatively deployed 9 GWs of Blackwell (vs sub-4.5 GWs on Hopper),” Rakers said. “Since shipping Blackwell in late CY24, we estimate NVDA has recognized ~$240-$250B out of the $500B+ target (through CY26)—we think an update to $600B+ would be positive. We’re also focused on whether NVDA will provide an update on its estimate of $3-$4T/annum in AI infrastructure spending by 2030.”
Stocks that could react to GTC developments include AMD (AMD), Taiwan Semiconductor, Broadcom (AVGO), Intel (INTC), Marvell (MRVL), and various networking names.