A lot is riding on Nvidia’s earnings after the bell

If history is any guide, there will be some big moves after the bell today. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is scheduled to report Q2 results, with options markets already showing outsized activity before the numbers reveal the latest inning of the AI revolution. The stock has moved an average of about 8% after earnings over the past 12 quarters, and should that happen again this afternoon, it would result in a market cap move of around $250B, which is bigger than many U.S. companies.

Off the charts: Q2 EPS and revenues are expected to come in at $0.64 (+138%) and $28.7B (+113%), respectively, doubling from the levels seen only a year ago. It’s even more impressive with margins in the mid-70% range despite pressure from recent capacity expansions, Most importantly, investors are going to want to hear more impressive guidance, along with the product roadmap that it will take to achieve those figures. Keep an eye on commentary surrounding the next-generation Blackwell chip (refuting reported delays?), as well as current Hopper sales, especially the newer H200 GPU.

Demand is likely intact through 2025, with many companies warning of greater risks of underinvestment in AI (rather than overspending), but there could also be pressure given sky-high expectations. Nvidia shares (NVDA) are up a whopping 160% in 2024, accounting for around a quarter of the S&P 500’s YTD return of 18%. This means a lot is riding on the results of this one company, which is the symbol of the AI story, the Mag7 story, the overall market story, and even the U.S. growth story.

SA commentary: “So far, so good with the signals we see from TSMC and SMCI’s most recent earnings reports. Foxconn commentary helps as well,” writes Investing Group Leader Beth Kindig. “Blackwell is on its way, the GB200s are going to crush expectations in FY2026, we are getting the green light from suppliers the delay is immaterial at this time, demand/big tech capex remains high, and let’s be real, nothing can stop what’s coming.”

More on Nvidia

• Nvidia could see more than 9% upside on its reporting day
• Nvidia Will Likely Continue Its Bull Run Post-Earnings (Earnings Preview)
• Nvidia Earnings In Focus, Chips Stocks Chopping Around
• Nvidia Powers Volvo’s Electrical Architecture, A Big Growth Category For The Chipmaker
• Nvidia Q2 FY25 Preview: Top Clients’ Capex Spend Expectations Signal Caution