Alphabet’s (GOOG) (GOOGL) 2026 outlook and capital spending plans will be in sharp focus as the tech giant reports Q4 earnings on Wednesday, February 4, after the market close.
Wall Street is forecasting EPS of $2.64 on revenue of $111.48B, representing 15.5% Y/Y growth.
Estimate trends have turned increasingly positive heading into the release. Over the past three months, EPS forecasts have seen 16 upward revisions against just three downward, while revenue expectations have strengthened further, with 22 upward revisions and only two cuts—signaling improving sentiment around Alphabet’s quarterly performance.
The company’s Q3 results set a strong backdrop, delivering a solid beat on both earnings and revenue, with sales topping $100B for the first time, led by double-digit sales gains almost across the board. Cost discipline also stood out, driving a 33% jump in net income to just under $35B.
As with all big-tech and AI-adjacent names in 2025, investor eyes will be on the company’s updates of capital expenditures, now largely a proxy for spending on artificial intelligence.
“With the growth across our business and demand from Cloud customers, we now expect 2025 capital expenditures to be in a range of $91 billion to $93 billion,” the company said in October.
The Google parent has jumped 68.8% over the past year, largely outperforming the broader market. “In the face of AI uncertainty, Alphabet (GOOG) may be in the most prominent position in terms of growth catalysts given advancements made in Gemini AI and accretive growth for Google Cloud. With the expectation of momentum to continue for Google Cloud margin expansion in eQ4 2025, I believe Alphabet may exceed market expectations and realize continued share growth despite the relatively high trading premium when compared to peer hyperscalers,” SA analyst Michael Del Monte said.
Wall Street remains firmly bullish, maintaining Strong Buy ratings with an average PT of $336.57. Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating, however, strikes a more cautious tone with a Hold, flagging valuation concerns after the sharp run-up.
SA contributor Paul Franke downgraded the stock to Hold, noting that shares have nearly doubled in a year and appear fully priced. Valuation multiples sit at multi-decade highs, with EV/EBITDA near 26x and FCF yield compressed to ~1.8%. Fading technical momentum, elevated insider selling, and sensitivity to any slowdown in AI adoption add to near-term caution.