Altria (MO) is scheduled to announce Q3 earnings results on Thursday, October 30th, before market open.
The consensus EPS estimate is $1.45 (+5.1% Y/Y) and the consensus revenue estimate is $5.31B (-0.6% Y/Y).
Over the last 2 years, MO has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 50% of the time.
Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 2 upward revisions and 5 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 3 upward revisions and 3 downward.
Key highlights to watch include:
- Continued growth in the nicotine pouch segment (On! brand), which saw shipment volume rise about 26.5% in Q2 2025 and remains a growth driver.
- The company’s smokable products segment, especially Marlboro, has maintained premium brand market share despite volume declines, supported by pricing strength.
- Operating income and gross margin expansions were seen in the prior quarter due to pricing power and cost control.
- Guidance for full-year 2025 EPS has been narrowed up to $5.35–$5.45, with ongoing share repurchases and dividend returns as key shareholder returns.
- Regulatory pressures and inflation’s impact on cigarette volumes and market mix remain challenges.
Both Wall Street analysts and Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating currently suggest a Hold.
However, views among SA analysts are mixed. Skeptical12 maintains a Buy, arguing that Altria’s stable business model, high margins, and strong cash flow continue to support attractive shareholder returns. The analyst highlights improved performance following the JUUL write-down, strong Q2 results with 6% Y/Y EPS growth, and ongoing expansion into smokeless products through new partnerships. With shares trading at ~13.3x forward earnings and offering a 6.23% dividend yield, the analyst sees the stock as undervalued.
On the other hand, Kody’s Dividends recently downgraded MO to Hold, noting that while the company extended its 56-year dividend growth streak and maintains disciplined leverage (debt-to-EBITDA at ~2x), shares now appear fairly valued. The analyst still expects MO to deliver a ~9% annual total return through 2030, supported by dividends and modest earnings growth, but views upside as limited at current levels.