Analyst who predicted AT&T would ditch Nokia for network needs thinks T-Mobile US may follow suit

A popular wireless market analyst predicts T-Mobile US (NASDAQ:TMUS) could possibly abandon Nokia (NYSE:NOK) for their network equipment needs, based on a thesis of technology and financial issues on the company, making the once former behemoth of the mobile phone industry lose market share to Swedish rival Ericsson (NASDAQ:ERIC).

Shares of Nokia are down more than 7% in the U.S. on Tuesday by midday.

Earl Lum of EJL Wireless Research, in an analysis post on LinkedIn, writes that after consulting with sources and channel checks, there is a possibility of Nokia getting struck out of the U.S. mobile radio antenna network market, with T-Mobile US being the latest to give the Finnish firm the boot, after AT&T and Verizon.

Lum is the same analyst that had correctly predicted AT&T would ditch Nokia as its 5G equipment supplier.

The analyst in the LinkedIn post said Nokia failed T-Mobile at least three times for its network needs and added that Nokia’s equipment was heavy, consumed more power, and used fans as a cooling solution for its components, compared to rival Ericsson’s products and offerings which were far superior.

“We have heard through our channel contacts that Nokia has begged and pleaded with T-Mobile USA and is willing to do whatever it takes to not lose the account. But the reality is that T-Mobile USA has been asking Nokia for 10+ years to do the things they have asked for, and Nokia has been unable to deliver, time and time again,” Lum said in his post on LinkedIn Tuesday.

“We believe that Ericsson’s macro and massive MIMO radio portfolio can deliver the virtualized, cloud, and AI RAN-driven solutions T-Mobile USA is looking for in the future with 5G-A,” Lum said.

“All of Nokia’s competitors have managed to design the same massive MIMO radios with the same MIMO configuration (32T/64T), at the same RF output power, with the same IBW/OBW, and with the same weight but without fans. What does this statement of fact imply?” Lum said towards the end of his concluding remarks.

The analyst noted that while not 100% of the current Nokia Osprey 64T and Habrok 64T massive MIMO units have fans, the majority of them do, and specifically, all of the ones in use by T-Mobile US do.

NOK is up nearly 30% so far this year while the benchmark S&P index rose more than 23%.