Analysts say Netflix starting small with live TV before going big is ‘no surprise’

Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) treading cautiously when trying new things is not an unfamiliar move.

The streaming giant testing the waters in France with live TV is the latest example. If successful, the company will further grow its subscribers and make traditional broadcasting obsolete over time globally.

Max Greve, a Seeking Alpha analyst, commented on the live TV initiative with TF1, saying Netflix “usually experiments in medium-sized markets before global rollouts.”

Starting in the summer of 2026, the company is expected to carry between five and nine TV channels for its 13.6M subscribers in France, which doesn’t appear to be overwhelming given the headway it has made in its livestreaming technologies.

The French TV group currently offers five free-to-air channels: TF1, TMC, TFX, TF1 Séries Films, and LCI; and four paid channels: TV Breizh, Histoire TV, Ushuaïa TV, and Serieclub.

Greve thinks Netflix could “definitely” expand to the U.S. and other places if the reception is positive in France. The U.S. market, which is also the company’s biggest, is nearly six times the size of France, boasting 81.4M subscribers.

“There is both potential and risk here, because a livestream means that control over curation shifts from Netflix to the one providing the live feed,” Greve said. “Netflix is continuing to push into live content because even ad-free subscribers watch ads on a live broadcast, and their ad business remains subscale.”

The Los Gatos, California-based company has transformed from being a movie rental business into a household streaming name. Seeking Alpha analyst The Entertainment Oracle said Netflix realized over the years that “they have to adapt to stay a leader” in the media field.

The company’s quiet entry into live TV comes at a time when television viewership via streaming has outpaced both cable and broadcast combined for the first time ever in the U.S.

“It’s not a surprise Netflix would look to test this type of partnership in a market like France,” The Entertainment Oracle said. “You may remember a few years ago, they rolled out the FAST-centric “Netflix Direct” initiative in the same location. This has essentially expanded that concept out in a substantial way.”

The company has gone from curating original content for linear channels to hosting linear channels and external content, the analyst pointed out. “This represents a major industry shift that we’ll likely see them try to duplicate down the line.”