Apple iPhone 16 Pro lead times up as Apple Intelligence roll out nears: MS

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 16 overall lead times remain down year over year, but they recently increased for the Pro and Pro Max models, as the first phase of Apple Intelligence is expected to roll out on Oct. 28, according to Morgan Stanley.

Overall, lead times for the iPhone 16 base, Plus, Pro and Pro Max models are all lower compared to the iPhone 15 one month after launch. The average lead time for all models of the iPhone 15 at this point in the cycle was 20.9 days. The average lead time for all iPhone 16 models is currently 13.25 days, according to data by Morgan Stanley.

However, demand appears to be strengthening for the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max models as lead times have increased by two days recently to 20.5 and 27.5 days, respectively. This still remains less than last year’s lead times of 34.8 days and 27.5 days, respectively.

“Our supply-chain checks suggest that this cycle, Apple has asked its suppliers to prepare component inventories earlier than typical patterns to avoid supply constraints, in contrast to past cycles where supply shortages kept new model iPhone Pro/Pro Max supply/demand imbalanced for months,” said Morgan Stanley analysts, led by Erik Woodring, in a Tuesday note. “We believe that better supply conditions are one of the contributing factors to why iPhone lead times are shorter this cycle than in recent cycles.”

The first phase of Apple Intelligence is expected to arrive on Oct. 28 when Apple releases the iOS 18.1 update to U.S. users. The update will include new writing tools, a new Siri interface, text and email summarizations, a “clean up” feature in Photos, audio transcriptions and Safari improvements.

The Cupertino-based company will unfurl more Apple Intelligence features in December with the iOS 18.2 update. However, non-English updates are not expected until as late as March 2025.

Morgan Stanley also noted the iPhone SE4, which costs around $499, will allow Apple to reach the low-end smartphone market, which has a 837M or $159B total addressable market, globally. It is expected to be released in March 2025.

Another possible catalyst for Apple is the new iPad mini, which is built for Apple Intelligence. It will be available on Oct. 23.

Apple shares ticked up 1.7% by noon trading on Tuesday.