Despite tariffs and geopolitical issues with China, Apple (AAPL) is still expected to deliver its largest year-over-year revenue jump in four years when it releases its first quarter fiscal 2026 financial results on Thursday, Jan. 29.
Apple CEO Tim Cook said first-quarter revenue is expected to demonstrate year-over-year growth ranging from 10% to 12%, which translates to $136.7B to $139.2B. This would easily eclipse Apple’s previous record high quarterly revenue of $124.3B set during the first quarter of fiscal 2025. What’s more, it would stand as Apple’s most significant year-over-year revenue jump since the first quarter of fiscal 2022, when it posted an 11.2% increase.
A consensus estimate expects Apple to report GAAP earnings per share of $2.67 on revenue of $138.47B. If the consensus estimate for EPS proves correct, it would break the previous record of $2.40 set during the first quarter of fiscal 2025.
“As always, Q1 results are key to monitoring the performance of the iPhone (56% of revenues in Q1 25),” said HSBC analysts, led by Nicolas Cote-Colisson, in an investor note.
This metric should prove positive as Apple led the global smartphone market in 2025 with a 20% share and 10% YoY shipment growth, the highest among the top five brands, according to preliminary estimates from Counterpoint Research. Apple also led Q4 smartphone shipments, accounting for a quarter of global shipments, its highest-ever share, followed by Samsung (SSNLF) at 17%.
What’s more, Apple led China’s smartphone market in the fourth quarter with a 21.8% share.
“Apple’s success is largely driven by the success of the iPhone 17 series, in particular, the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max, as well as the continued success of the iPhone 16 in key emerging markets,” Cote-Colisson said.
However, it will be important to monitor the effects of rising memory prices due to the supply crunch related to unprecedented demand stemming from AI data centers. Several reports have said data centers will consume 70% of all memory produced in 2026.
Counterpoint noted that memory prices are expected to surge by 40% to 50% in the first quarter of 2026, followed by an additional increase of around 20% in the second quarter.
This is expected to affect producers of smartphones and PCs. Apple should be safe in the short term, though.
“In the high end of the market, Apple and Samsung face pressure but are structurally hedged,” according to IDC. “Its cash reserves and long-term supply agreements allow it to secure memory supply 12-24 months in advance. On the other hand, new flagship models in 2026 will likely have no RAM upgrades, sticking to 12 GB for Pro models rather than increasing to 16 GB.”