Apple’s iPhone 16 Pro/Pro Max lead times hold steady in week three: analysts

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 16 delivery lead times have trended below historical results, but data indicates this might be due to stronger supply and high-end consumers awaiting the arrival of Apple Intelligence, according to analysts.

“In Week 3 of our Apple Product Availability Tracker, delivery lead times are showing trends which, if continued, will explain the weaker lead times for the Pro models in the initial weeks as only an aberration led by a combination of better supply mix as well as delay in pick up in momentum from higher-end consumers awaiting the release of Apple Intelligence,” said J.P. Morgan analysts, let by Samik Chatterjee, in an investor note.

iPhone 16 base models shipping times in the U.S. have sped up to 10 days by week three, compared to 17 days in week two. However, delivery times for the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max remained at 23 days and 29 days, respectively, from week to week.

The delivery tracker in China demonstrated similar results, with lead times dropping for base models and remaining static for Pro and Pro Max.

“In aggregate, although overall lead times for the iPhone 16 models are still lower relative to iPhone 15 last year, narrowing of the gap between the two groups (Base vs. Pro) over the last week as well as steady lead times for the Pro models are highlighting the likelihood that the initial slower momentum in demand for the Pro models is correcting itself with the release of Apple Intelligence drawing closer,” Chatterjee added.

Data tracked by Morgan Stanley revealed a similar pattern.

“iPhone 16 lead times as of Sept 27th are still tracking lower than the past 3 iPhone cycles, but lead times for 16 Pro/Pro Max models are now extending/stabilizing across all regions that we track, an unexpectedly positive development,” said Morgan Stanley analysts, led by Erik Woodring, in a Monday note.

With lead times for the Pro and Pro Max stabilizing or extending, shipments are resembling the trajectories of the iPhone 12 and 13 cycles.

“But interestingly, iPhone 16 Pro/Pro Max lead times have extended by 2 days since last Tuesday, an unexpectedly positive trend that more closely resembles the trajectory of the better-performing iPhone 12 and 13 Pro/Pro Max models, rather than the iPhone 14 and 15 Pro/Pro Max models, which saw contracting lead times at this point in the cycle,” Woodring added.

Apple shares ticked up 1% during pre-market trading on Monday.

The iOS 18.1 update, which will signal the roll-out of Apple Intelligence features, is slated for mid-October, with subsequent updates unlocking more AI features.