Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 1.5% year-over-year in 2025 to 1.25 billion, driven by a record-breaking performance from Apple (AAPL), but 2026 faces a decline in shipments due to worsening memory component shortages, according to research firm IDC.
This is an increase from 1% growth in the prior forecast, mainly driven by accelerated performance from Apple in the holiday quarter, rapid growth in key emerging markets and stabilization in China, according to the report.
IDC noted that Apple shipments are expected to grow 6.1% year-on-year to a record 247.4 million units in 2025, largely due to high demand for the iPhone 17 series and a significant turnaround in China.
“In China, Apple’s largest market, massive demand for iPhone 17 has significantly accelerated Apple’s performance. It ranked first in October and November per IDC’s China Monthly Sales data with more than 20% share, miles ahead of the competition, leading IDC to revise Apple’s Q4 forecast in China from 9% to 17% YoY. This turns a previously projected 1% decline in China for 2025 into a positive 3% growth, that’s a phenomenal turnaround,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
Popal added that this calendar year will not only be a record period for Apple in terms of shipments but also in value, which is forecast to exceed $261B, with 7.2% year-over-year growth in 2025.
IDC said that the near-term forecast for smartphones has strengthened, but 2026 growth has been revised downward to 0.9% decline from 1.2% growth due to a combination of component shortages and product cycle adjustments.
Apple’s strategic shift of its next base iPhone model from fall 2026 to early 2027 is forecast to pull-down iOS shipments by 4.2% next year, according to the research firm.
In addition, IDC noted that the ongoing global memory shortage is expected to constrain supply and raise prices, which will impact low-to-mid range Android devices more significantly as they remain more price sensitive.
Smartphone units will face a soft decline in 2026, but average selling price, or ASP, will increase to $465, propelling the market to its record high value of $578.9B, as per IDC.
“As memory components become more limited and more expensive, manufacturers face increasing pressure to raise prices,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “Next year will be a challenging time for the industry, however, IDC still believes the market could see record ASPs.”