Polymarket appears set to return to the U.S. in time for the 2025 NFL season, according to Sportico. The prediction market platform has been running advertisements in the U.S. and is inviting potential new customers to join a waiting list.
After being barred from the U.S. since early 2022 due to Commodity Futures Trading Commission enforcement actions, Polymarket recently acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million. The acquisition provides Polymarket a regulated and compliant pathway to re-enter the U.S. market.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi operate using the argument that they offer sports contracts that are financial assets, which should be overseen by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission instead of state gambling commissions.
The price of a prediction market contract on a sports event ($1.00 for yes, $0.00 for no) reflects the consensus of users on the probability of an outcome. The prices move dynamically based on trading and are not set by a bookmaker. However, the implied odds offered on the contracts are similar to betting lines.
The sports betting sector is seeing disruption due to the advent of prediction markets. For its part, FanDuel (NYSE:FLUT) has entered a strategic partnership with CME Group (CME) to create a platform that allows retail users to bet on the outcomes of financial market events. The joint venture is set up to operate as a non-clearing futures commission merchant. Pending regulatory review, the launch could be later in 2025.
The partnership is seen as comparable to Robinhood Markets (HOOD) and Kalshi’s partnership and sets the stage for DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG) and potentially BetMGM (MGM) (OTCPK:GMVHF) to also jump into the mix. While the FanDuel-CME deal announcement did not mention sports event contracts, Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas noted that FanDuel (NYSE:FLUT) will be set up to easily flip the switch on for an event-based sports trading product in the future.