Sven Piper
ARK Invest created an open-source model that values SpaceX (SPACE) at an expected enterprise value in 2030 of ~$2.5 trillion, which is more than 7X the $350 billion valuation from the last funding round in December 2024.
The Cathie Wood-led firm’s analytic model was noted to work like a flywheel with self-reinforcing momentum. Beginning with cash, SpaceX (SPACE) builds rockets and satellites, creates orbital bandwidth, acquires Starlink (STRLK) customers, and reinvests the resulting cash. As the cycle continues, funds flow gradually toward the development of Mars, until the Starlink constellation is complete.
“When the Starlink constellation is complete, we assume that SpaceX sustains the constellation and then ramps up its investment in Mars. Each Mars-bound rocket carries a combination of Optimus humanoid robots and materials. Assuming Optimus productivity improves and costs decline over time, SpaceX builds its Mars book value.”
Once SpaceX (SPACE) completes Starlink’s constellation around 2035, ARK’s research suggests that SpaceX (SPACE) could generate ~$300 billion in annual revenue, accounting for ~15% of total spending on global communications.
Elon Musk founded SpaceX with the goal of making life multiplanetary, specifically enabling humans to occupy Mars with the help of his other companies. Per the ARK analyst team, Musk has been engineering Optimus robots and Boring Company machines to build infrastructure for challenging extraterrestrial environments to support the colonization of Mars.
Mutual funds and ETFs that hold SpaceX (SPACE) include ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX), Baillie Gifford U.S. Growth Fund, Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (OTCPK:STMZF), Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust (OTCPK:EWIIF), ERShares Crossover ETF (XOVR), Baron Partners Fund (BPTRX), Destiny Tech100 Fund (DXYZ), and the Fidelity Contrafund (FCNTX).
Accredited investors who meet certain income or net worth thresholds can buy shares directly on private secondary marketplaces such as Hiive, Nasdaq Private Market, ForgeGlobal, and EquityZen. Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Bank of America (BAC) also hold stakes in SpaceX (SPACE), which gives investors in those stocks a very low level of indirect exposure.