As AMD (AMD) gets set to host its analyst day on Nov. 11, investment firm Wedbush Securities wonders if the company will hear anything that “will significantly move the needle around forward expectations.”
AMD shares rose 3.5% in premarket trading on Monday.
“Within our model, Data Center GPU growth represents 50% of the revenue growth we forecast for 2026 and over 70% of the revenue uptick we have modeled in 2027. However, our model still only implies ~$10B in incremental growth from OpenAI, which necessarily would suggest a delayed ramp (vs. the 1+ GW of annual growth necessary to hit OpenAI’s 6GW target),” analyst Matt Bryson wrote in a note to clients. “And adding to that number ($10B+ if AMD executes or presumably a significantly lower number if the MI450 roll-out disappoints) is the single largest variable in our assumptions. Net, while we expect AMD will provide further details around its MI400 series features; insight into the MI500 series technology, and perhaps even an incremental large customer announcement (Amazon had been rumored as a potential add heading into their last AI day), we believe it will be difficult for AMD to move the needle as the largest x-factor is not TAM, but rather quality and delivery timing of the MI400 parts, which in turn will define AMD’s revenue trajectory.”
Bryson has an Outperform rating and $290 price target on AMD.
Delving deeper, Bryson said commentary from AMD’s management, led by CEO Dr. Lisa Su, around gross margins for its artificial intelligence products could be the one item that impacts earnings estimates “meaningfully,” though that is not certain to be shared.
Other topics of interest that are likely to be shared include AMD’s PC and server roadmaps, including timeframes, expected ship dates and performance, and potentially any changes to the total addressable market size, Bryson said.
He also said he’s expecting to hear further details on how AMD views the AI PC market, given that it would incorporate AI functionality at the edge and help support a refresh cycle. Other potential updates include how AMD views the field programmable array market and deeper thoughts on bringing AI to the edge, Bryson added.