Cox Automotive forecasts that the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in February will be 15.6M to represent a decline from last year’s 16.0M level but higher than January’s weather-affected pace of 14.9M. Winter weather and economic uncertainty were the two main factors for auto demand during the month.
New-vehicle sales volume is expected to be down 3.4% year over year to 1.19M. Compared to January, new-vehicle sales volume is forecast to rise by 6.9% in February, with two fewer selling days, which is the typical seasonal trend. Full-size pickup volume was forecast to be down 1.1% during the month, which was the best pace of any segment.
“The new-vehicle sales pace shifted to a lower gear in Q4 of last year, and that weakness is expected to continue through this month as well,” stated Cox Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough. “The loss of electric vehicle tax credits at the end of Q3 continues to impact sales. Also, the market is slowing due to ongoing concerns about the U.S. economy and high new-vehicle prices. These conditions are expected to be major headwinds for the new-vehicle market throughout 2026,” he added.
The firm thinks tax refunds being distributed across the nation could provide a minor, short-term boost to vehicle sales in the coming months.
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