Christmas is coming early this year, as retailers face economic worries, late Thanksgiving

Even as back-to-school purchases still sit on many credit card balances, major retailers are already turning their eyes towards the critical holiday shopping season. Target (NYSE:TGT) was the first of the retailing giants to lay out its holiday plans, revealing that it will hire about 100,000 additional seasonal team members. At the same time, the firm set an early-October date for its Target Circle Week.

This early start to the holiday push comes amid concerns about the enthusiasm of holiday shoppers. Economic worries combined with an abnormally short pre-Christmas shopping season could push retailers to get more aggressive about getting in front of potential buyers.

Looking at the calendar pressure, Thanksgiving in the U.S. falls on Nov. 28 this year, the latest it can be. This leaves just 26 shopping days from Black Friday to Christmas Eve, five fewer shopping days in November than in 2023.

On the economic front, consumers are still dealing with elevated inflation levels. While well below the post-pandemic peaks, prices are still rising at a pace above the Federal Reserve’s preferred target. Meanwhile, the jobs market has shown signs of softness with unemployment drifting up since the start of the year.

All told, this has raised concerns about sales growth during the holiday months. Deloitte issued a report predicting mild sales growth of between 2.3% and 3.3% compared with last year, bringing the total to $1.58T-$1.59T for the November to January period. For comparison, the same period last year saw 4.3% sales growth.

“Although the pace of increase in holiday sales will be slower than last year, we expect that healthy growth in disposable personal income, combined with a steady labor market, will support a solid holiday sales season,” Deloitte economist Akrur Barua said.

Given the pressures they face, retailers seem ready to move up holiday shopping to counteract these headwinds. Looking at Target’s recent announcement, the retailer set its Target Circle Week event for Oct. 6-12. Target’s Deal of the Day program has returned as well, with new one-day-only deals available each day of Target Circle Week. Those daily deals also return Nov. 1 through the rest of the season for Target Circle members.

Meanwhile, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has also set a discount event for early next month. The online retailing giant announced that it will start its annual Prime Big Deal Days event on Oct. 8-9.

The question now becomes: Will retailers be forced into a dangerous discount war to capture consumers’ attention? Investors will closely monitor the holiday strategies from big-name players like Walmart (NYSE:WMT), TJX (NYSE:TJX), Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST), Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), Gap (NYSE:GAP), Macy’s (NYSE:M), Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN), Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) and Dillard’s (NYSE:DDS).

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