Despite an increasingly crowded space, Instacart’s (CART) third quarter results underscored the company’s durability with a 10% improvement in gross transaction value (GTV) fueled by a loyal and growing customer base.
“Competition remains Instacart’s main pressure point, but so far, competition hasn’t deteriorated Instacart’s growth story completely,” said Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak in a note following CART’s most recent quarterly results.
Needham’s Bernie McTernan sees the competitive landscape as more of a risk and lowered his price target and 2026 estimates, accordingly, but trends in CART’s core grocery marketplace “are healthy and October commentary leads us to push up our second half GTV estimates by 1%.”
For the third quarter, Instacart’s parent company, Maplebear (CART), reported a 14% year-over-year increase in orders, and 10% gain in GTV, driving net income to a better-than-expected $0.51 per share, a gain of 21% gain from last year.
The quarterly results and upbeat outlook led BMO’s Brian Pitz to upgrade Instacart (CART) to Outperform from Market Perform, highlighting the company’s enterprise platform as a “key differentiator and an underappreciated strategic growth lever, providing a long runway for expansion.”
“A combination of versatile fulfillment services, in-store technology, AI solutions, and white-label e-commerce tech powers this B2B platform,” Pitz says.
Competition from DoorDash (DASH), Amazon (AMZN), and Uber (UBER) can’t be ignored but so far, hasn’t deteriorated CART’s growth story.
“As Instacart’s growth outlook has been increasingly cloudy due to an increasingly competitive landscape, fourth quarter GTV guidance is highly encouraging,” Seeking Alpha analyst Caffital Research said, adding that “profitability continues to follow Instacart’s growth as the company benefits from increasing scale.”
For the current quarter, Instacart (CART) expects 9% to 11% GTV growth, while ad and “other” revenue is seen growing by 6% to 9% from last year with double-digit growth anticipated for FY26.
“We delivered a great Q3 and our momentum continues to build as we look to finish 2025 strong,” Instacart CFO Emily Maher said on the company’s earnings call.
“As a clear category leader, operating at tremendous scale and driving efficiencies, we’re taking a disciplined but aggressive approach to investing to further accelerate our growth and advance the broader industry.”
Instacart (CART) shares are up again on Tuesday, adding 6% to the stock’s 13% three-day gain.