Counterpoint Research has forecasted that Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone shipments will surpass Samsung’s (OTCPK:SSNLF) smartphone shipments in 2025, effectively ending a 14-year reign by the South Korean company.
What’s more, Counterpoint expects Apple to retain the top spot through 2029.
“Counterpoint forecasts that the brand’s shipments will reach a global share of 19.4% in 2025, making Apple the world’s No. 1 smartphone OEM for the first time since 2011,” the research firm said. “Samsung’s shipments are also expected to grow 4.6% YoY and reach a global share of 18.7%, yet the company will relinquish the top spot it has held for more than a decade.”
The release of the iPhone 17 has helped fuel this momentum, as iPhone shipments are expected to increase by 10% year over year in 2025. During October, Counterpoint tracked double-digit growth in both the U.S. and China markets.
“Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point,” said Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang. “Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase. Furthermore, 358M second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years. These factors will form a sizable demand base, which is expected to sustain iPhone shipment growth over the coming quarters.”
Apple shares had inched up 0.9% by noon trading on Wednesday.
The release of the iPhone 17e during the first half of 2026 will position Apple to increase its share in emerging markets, as the lower premium smartphone market is expected to grow faster than the total smartphone market.
Counterpoint noted that the delay to upgrade Siri has not proved detrimental to iPhone sales, and when these enhancements are added in 2026, it will likely provide more upside.
Apple is also reportedly getting closer to releasing its Apple Intelligence features in China.