The U.S. box office is expected to see a big bounce in Q4 after underperforming in Q3. Analysts are also positive on the setup for 2026.
Disney (NYSE:DIS) is seen as being in a strong position with Tron: Ares, Zootopia 2, Avatar: Fire and Ash, and Predator: Badlands all releasing during the quarter. Universal Pictures (CMCSA) has The Running Man releasing and Wicked: For Good releasing. Sony Pictures (SONY) has The Black Phone 2 coming out. Meanwhile, Paramount (NASDAQ:PSKY) is looking for strong numbers from The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants For its part, Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) still has a strong Q4 carryover from A Minecraft Movie to boost it.
Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon forecasts the Q4 box office tally will be up 17% from a year ago. He noted that theater company management teams are also positive on box office growth in 2026 due to the strength of the film slate and ongoing demand for premium formats, which are expected to benefit average ticket prices.
“Moviegoing is recession-resistant. Macro concerns obviously remain top of mind for investors, and in this environment we highlight what we believe to be the attractiveness of the moviegoing sector. Historically, the US box office has been correlated more with product than with cycles,” wrote Beynon. He observed that as a form of entertainment, moviegoing is widely viewed as an economic trade-down for consumers.
Texas Capital analyst Eric Wold said the firm remains optimistic on the potential for a low double-digit year-over-year box office revenue increase for Q4. “Furthermore, with 2026 expected to represent the first clean post-pandemic year for both attendance patterns and the film slate, we expect this moviegoing demand momentum to continue with another solid high-single digit percentage box office gain for the year,” he wrote. Following the weak Q3 box office run, Wold and his team reduced their full year 2025 domestic box office projection to $9.09 billion. The firm’s view is that the relatively weak Q3 box office revenue is already priced into the share prices across the sector.
Related stocks: Disney (NYSE:DIS), Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD), Comcast (CMCSA), Paramount Skydance (NASDAQ:PSKY), Lionsgate Studios (LION), AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC), IMAX (IMAX), Cinemark (CNK), Cineplex (OTCPK:CPXGF), Marcus Corporation (MCS), and National CineMedia (NCMI).