Early holiday spending data bode well for Visa, Mastercard, others, Citi says

Consumer spending on Black Friday came in slightly better than expected, indicating support for stocks such as Visa (NYSE:V), Mastercard (NYSE:MA), Fiserv (NYSE:FI), and PayPal Holdings (NASDAQ:PYPL), Citi analyst Andrew Schmidt said in a note published on Monday.

Mastercard (NYSE:MA) data indicated U.S. retail sales rose ~3.4% Y/Y on the Friday after Thanksgiving, compared with ~2.5% in 2023, with ecommerce rising ~14.6% (vs. 8.5% last year) and in-store growth of ~0.7% (vs. +1.1% last year).

“The timing of Black Friday is later this year; more purchase concentration and deal-seeking behavior is possible,” Schmidt wrote.

He continues to monitor consumer health, as he observes that a large part of holiday spending remains.

“However, the early data appear supportive of V/MA and other parts of the ecosystem such as FI,” the analyst said. “While holiday e-comm spend is often centered around larger merchant/commerce platforms, trend stability can support PYPL. We look for possible updates from several players this week.”

Most payment names were in the red in midday trading on Monday. PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) slipped 0.6%, Mastercard (MA) -1.1%, Visa (NYSE:V) -0.4%, and Fiserv (NYSE:FI) -1.1%.