Economy stays resilient, IB fees seen rebounding, JPMorgan’s Lake says

The economy overall continues to be “pretty resilient” as inflation heads in the right direction, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) said Marianne Lake, CEO of Consumer and Community Banking and former CFO of JPMorgan Chase, at an industry conference on Tuesday.

The firm expects the Federal Reserve to cut its benchmark rate next week, then three more cuts by the end of next year.

Holiday spending appears to be solid to a little firmer than it was a year ago. The consumer appears to be on “relatively solid footing,” Lake said.

“The honest answer on (lending standards) tightening is: We always are.” Any major changes to lending standards will be driven by macroeconomics rather than problems with performance.

Event concludes at 12:57 PM ET.

12:55 PM ET: There’s still a lot of uncertainty over the Basel III endgame rules, but it’s not materially changing how JPMorgan is operating its businesses. Management is expecting a more capital-neutral outcome in the final rules, Lake said.

12:44 PM ET: JPMorgan (JPM) retained more than 90% of clients for the First Republic business it acquired last year. The acquisition will give the JPM the ability to offer new wealth management services to 90M of JPM’s existing clients.

12:40 PM ET: JPMorgan (JPM) expects Q4 NII will come in a little better than consensus.

For investment banking fees, “we’re expecting 45% increase Y/Y” and market revenue to be up 15% “or a touch better” Y/Y.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) stock rose 0.9% at ~12:41 PM ET.

12:37 PM ET: For 2025, the company is expecting net interest income to be about $2B higher than its prior guidance, on the rate outlook, she said.

Updated at12:35 PM ET: Only areas with pockets of underperformance are in small business credit card and small business lending.

Consumer deposits have dipped, plateauing in October and stabilizing through Q4. “As we have likely seen trough in deposits, we’re likely to have seen a peak in CDs,” she noted.

From corporations, confidence is stronger, and fears of recession are fading, she added.

Any policy changes on tariffs and immigration from the incoming Trump administration should be “headwinds, not derailers.”