Election Scorecard: A look at how some major assets have done so far since Trump’s win
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Most major global financial assets have reacted as largely expected to Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election earlier this month, as market participants across the globe have digested the potential implications of the American politician’s second term.
See the chart below for a roundup of the gains and losses in some selected assets:
Things to be gleaned from the chart:
- U.S. outperformance continues with Wall Street marching higher. Meanwhile, European and Asian equities have shown weakness as traders fret over Trump’s proposed trade policies including his promise of levying more tariffs – predictably, the Chinese indexes have fallen the most.
- Yields in Germany and the UK have slipped as market participants have turned to the safety of bonds.
- The dollar index has strengthened, as the greenback is seen to benefit from a low-tax and high-tariff environment under a second Trump administration.
“Since the U.S. election, global markets have probably reacted as you’d have expected if you were concerned about the new administration’s trade policy, and if you thought U.S. exceptionalism would continue,” Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid said on Thursday.
“Obviously, a lot of people have mentioned the 2016 playbook. But it’s worth remembering that the S&P 500 was only up +1% in the 18 months before election day 2016, so there was a lot of room to catch up after a sluggish period. By contrast in 2024, the index was up +40% in the 18 months before the election, so building on that would be historically impressive even if continued U.S. exceptionalism remains the main market take from the election so far,” Reid added.
There have been some assets that have seen an outsized advance or retreat. See the chart below:
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has quickly cemented its place as one of the most prominent “Trump trades” following the Republican candidate’s election victory. Its advance has come after Trump embraced the crypto during his election campaign and became the first-ever major U.S. party nominee to accept donations in bitcoin (BTC-USD) and other cryptocurrencies.
Meanwhile, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has soared on hopes that top boss Elon Musk’s close relationship with Trump could translate into a benefit for the electric vehicle maker.
Speaking of electric vehicles, stocks and exchange-traded funds tied to renewable and solar energy have come under pressure, amid worries that the Republicans would take a much harder stance towards renewable energy projects and spending than the Biden administration.
Wall Street on Friday ended the week higher, helped by steady gains as the S&P 500 (SP500) rebounded following a dip post the election. Here are some exchange-traded funds of interest that track the benchmark index: (VOO), (IVV), (NYSEARCA:RSP), (SSO), (UPRO), (SH), (SDS), and (SPXU).
For investors looking to follow the federal government through market instruments, here are some politically driven Republican and Democratic ETFs:
- God Bless America ETF (YALL)
- American Conservative Values ETF (ACVF)
- Point Bridge America First ETF (MAGA)
- Democratic Large Cap Core ETF (DEMZ)
- Unusual Whales Subversive Democratic ETF (NANC)
- Unusual Whales Subversive Republican ETF (KRUZ)
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