Eli Lilly Q2 2024 Earnings Preview: Overseas obesity drug approvals could boost guidance

Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings results on Thursday, August 8th, before market open.

Analysts expect profit of $2.76 (+30.8% Y/Y) on revenue of $9.97B (+19.9% Y/Y).

Investors are expecting an in-line quarter, but the recent obesity drug approvals in EU and China could boost guidance.

“LLY has had an uncharacteristically poor stretch as of late – down 12% from mid-July. In our view, however, the set-up for LLY is primed to be a potential modest topline miss/inline print on GLP-1’s for Q2 but it very well could be accompanied by a raise of FY guide.” Jefferies says.

Over the last 2 years, LLY has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 63% of the time.

Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 4 upward revisions and 12 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 6 upward revisions and 5 downward.

Barclays believes the combination of step-ups in Mounjaro/Zepbound script trends, continued messaging around further supply coming on-line in 2H, narrative reinforcing clinical catalysts on the horizon, and tangible signs of new momentum across the non-metabolic portfolio should continue to drive LLY shares higher.

Speaking of supply issues and guidance, it adds, “Lilly has issued consistent messaging throughout ’24 that supply remains the limiting factor to tirzepatide franchise sales, although management noted that fewer dosage strengths are now formally in shortage as per the FDA site, and reiterated guidance of >1.5x sellable doses in 2H24 vs. 2H23 – a figure which sets a floor, but is increasingly less relevant to where we think supply is going.

Additional Kwikpen OUS sales should show in 2Q following EU approval and Germany launch in May, following the UK in February – recall the Mounjaro brand encompasses both obesity and diabetes OUS.”

The stock has gained 33% YTD and about 75% in the last 12 months.