Eli Lilly Q3 2024 Earnings Preview: Focus on exit rate, fear of revenue miss on the horizon

Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) is scheduled to announce Q3 earnings results on Wednesday, October 30th, before market open.

Analysts expect profit of $1.47 per share on revenue of $12.12B (+27.7% Y/Y).

Investors are cautious of a revenue miss, although they don’t expect a damp on guidance with strong weight loss drugs sales.

Wells Fargo says that a 3Q miss Is largely expected now. “As we previously noted, our full 3Q’24 preview also points to a 3.5%-5% top-line miss driven by an 8-11% US incretin miss. We do not see risk to 2025 guidance & improving supply could even help raise it. Exit rate would be the key focus.”

Over the last 2 years, LLY has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 75% of the time.

Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 13 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 16 upward revisions and 0 downward.

“Eli Lilly is positioned well among the large biopharma companies, with no major LoEs approaching and durable growth behind blockbuster products Mounjaro, Verzenio, and lebrikizumab. We think the current supply concerns for Mounjaro are transient, providing an appealing entry point,” adds Wells Fargo.

LLY is up 55.6% so far this year and is rated as Hold according to SA Quant ratings system.