Eli Lilly (LLY) is projected to deliver a strong fourth-quarter print on February 4, before markets open. Analysts are bullish on the company’s full-year performance, driven by its competitive positioning in the weight loss market with upcoming launches and tailwinds from Medicare access.
The pharma giant is expected to report an EPS of $6.93, translating to a 25.8% jump year-on-year, while revenue is seen soaring nearly 33% Y/Y to $17.94 billion. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 5 upward revisions and 9 downward moves, while revenue estimates have seen 13 upward revisions.
Analysts are upbeat about the company’s future on the back of Lilly’s blockbuster weight loss drugs Mounjaro/Zepbound’s continued share gains and the launch of orforglipron, with analysts at Bernstein expecting the company to show continued outperformance generated by earnings beats.
“We anticipate Orforglipron in the cash pay market and the Trump deal for Medicare will be the primary source of the outperformance,” analysts led by Courtney Breen said.
UBS has also termed Lilly as the “best growth story for 2026-2030” as the company’s CMS (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services) access is expected to drive upside.
“With LLY’s recent agreement in November, CMS will provide Medicare access to the obesity portfolio, opening access to ~25M additional people on Medicare and Medicaid, creating significant potential upside to estimates given the expanded volume opportunity—previously unavailable. We also expect commercial payors to follow suit now that Medicare has reasonable access, with pricing coming in at $245/month, in line or better than expectations, and help open up commercial access volume,” Michael Yee said.
Lilly has also signaled that seven more Phase 3 trials for retatrutide are expected to conclude in 2026, making it a pivotal year for data readouts across obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and weight-maintenance populations, Bernstein additionally noted.
Over the last 2 years, LLY has beaten revenue as well as EPS estimates 75% of the time. However, on a YTD basis, the stock has declined nearly 3%, lagging the broader markets.