Tesla (TSLA) published a summary of analyst estimates for Q4 vehicle deliveries to its website. The consensus estimate across more than 20 firms was for 422,850 vehicles to be delivered in Q4, consisting of 388,002 Model 3/Y deliveries and 34,848 deliveries of other models. Tesla (TSLA) looked to stoke demand during the quarter by rolling out cheaper versions of the Model 3 and Model Y.
The consensus Q4 tally represents a decline of 15% from a year ago when Tesla (TSLA) delivered 495,570 vehicles in Q4. The electric vehicle maker saw deliveries ramp up this year ahead of the expiration of the electric vehicle tax credit, with Q1 deliveries of 336,681 vehicles, Q2 deliveries of 384,122 vehicles, and Q3 deliveries of 497,099 vehicles.
Looking further down the road, analysts expect 2026 deliveries of 1.75 million vehicles, 2027 deliveries of 2.01 million vehicles, and 2028 deliveries of 2.35 million. Tesla (TSLA) is seen topping 3 million vehicles for the first time in 2029.
Tesla (TSLA) is expected to release its Q4 deliveries report during the first few days of January.
Shares of Tesla (TSLA) are up 13.8% on a year-to-date basis with only two trading days left in the year. The share price return trails the broad market average and YTD gains of auto peers General Motors (GM) +55.8%, Rivian Automotive (RIVN) +55.4%, Ford (F) +36.3%, and NIO (NIO) +22.5%.