Generative AI might be following Facebook’s adoption curve: Morgan Stanley

Generative artificial intelligence took the world by storm in late 2022, with the release of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Since then, seemingly every tech company has gotten into the game, with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and a host of startups looking to show off their technical chops.

And while usage has continued to rise, Morgan Stanley thinks it could follow the adoption curve of a platform that has become ubiquitous: Facebook.

The latest survey from Morgan Stanley shows a “low double-digit” percentage of U.S. users (including younger people using it at a mid-to-high-teens percentage) are using ChatGPT, Gemini and Meta AI daily, similar to what Facebook saw in 2009, analysts at the firm wrote in a note to clients.

Monthly usage is between 35% and 40%, according to the survey, up from a previous survey that showed roughly 25% to 30% of respondents.

The survey was conducted online among 2,010 consumers in the U.S. over the age of 16 during September 2024. The margin of error is ±1.8% at a 90% confidence level and is higher for subgroups.

They found that research is still the most common use case, but commercial behaviors, such as shopping, looking up recipes or travel, are rising.

“While travel planning remains lower (less than 20%), we expect product innovation in ’25 (digital travel planners already shown by GOOGL, for one) to potentially drive further behavior change,” the analysts wrote. “Here again, at a high level, it will be important to monitor changes in commercial offerings, innovation and consumer behaviors in order to gauge the long-term search/commerce monetization potential of each platform.”

Innovation across the generative AI space — including new models that have increased reasoning and agent potential — are important to driving further adoption, differentiation and monetization, the analysts added.