Global increase in diabetes indicates more room for GLP-1 meds to grow

A recent study that found there has been a massive increase in type 2 diabetes cases worldwide since 1990 is an indication that the market for GLP-1 drugs could likely be a lot bigger.

That’s good news for companies like Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) who produce the best-selling GLP-1 meds for diabetes, respectively, Ozempic (semaglutide) and Mounjaro (tirzepatide).

Based on data from more than 1100 studies involving 141M participants, the paper in The Lancet found that in 2022, an estimated 828M adults had diabetes globally. That was an increase of 630M from 1990.

The results also showed that in 2022, 445M adults 30 years and older with diabetes (59% of the group) did not receive any treatment, a figure 3.5 times the number in 1990.

The largest increases were seen in low-income and middle-income countries in southeast Asia, south Asia, the Middle East and north Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean.

The country with the most diabetics, as of 2022, was India, with 212M. That was followed by China with 148M. The U.S. had 42M.

The Lancet report also noted that obesity, a key risk factor for diabetes, has also increased in most countries in the past few decades, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries.

Novo and Lilly also market their GLP-1s for weight loss under, respectively, Wegovy (semaglutide) and Zepbound (tirzepatide).

“In most countries, especially in low-income and middle-income countries, diabetes treatment has not increased at all or has not increased sufficiently in comparison with the rise in prevalence,” the authors wrote.