Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley bullish on BioAge, cite Lilly relationship
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Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs issued bullish notes on BioAge (NASDAQ:BIOA) based on the company’s drug candidate azelaprag that aims to increase weight-loss while improving body composition when used with incretin drugs such as Eli Lilly’s (NYSE:LLY) Zepbound and Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) Wegovy.
Morgan Stanley started coverage of BioAge (BIOA) with an overweight rating and price target of $40.
The bank noted that BioAge (BIOA) is running a Phase 2 study of azelaprag in combination with Zepbound, also known as tirzepatide, with topline data expected in Q3 2025. The company is also beginning a Phase 2 study of the drug in combination with Wegovy, also known as semaglutide, in the first half of 2025, with data expected in the second half of 2026.
“We think the most compelling reason to be bullish on BioAge (BIOA) is its partnership with Lilly, which not only validates the company’s approach (Lilly is also involved the study design and running the study) but also provides potential optionality as Lilly has exclusive right of first negotiation with the Phase 2 results,” Morgan Stanley said.
Morgan Stanley has modeled the drug generating around $1.5B in peak risk-adjusted global sales by 2036, with a 55% probability of success.
Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of the stock without a rating or price target, but said it was positive ahead of the Phase 2 data for the Zepbound combination. It said it viewed a greater than 3% improvement in weight-loss versus Zepbound alone at Week 24 “as the bar for success.”
The investment bank also noted “BioAge’s (BIOA) ultimate aim of creating a co-formulated all-oral combo via a partnership with one of the oral incretin assets in development (e.g. LLY’s orforglipron).”
Goldman Sachs has modeled peak azelaprag sales of $8.5B in 2036, with a 40% probability of success, via peak penetration of 15% as an add-on therapy in the incretin-treated market.
BioAge (BIOA) held an upsized initial public offering on Sept. 26, raising $198M.