Healthcare services stocks could benefit from Harris win, Oppenheimer says

Oppenheimer sees Medicaid and Obamacare-related stocks Centene (NYSE:CNC), Molina (NYSE:MOH), HCA Healthcare (NYSE:HCA) and Oscar Health (NYSE:OSCR) benefitting if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the U.S. presidential election but being negatively impacted if former President Donald Trump is re-elected.

The investment bank said in a note, that if Harris wins and the Republicans gain Senate control, but the House is “still up in the air, we are likely looking at gridlock for two more years.” It added that the resulting gridlock would likely benefit stocks associated with Medicaid and state-directed payments, such as Centene (CNC), Molina (MOH), HCA Healthcare (HCA) and Oscar Health (OSCR), “as these programs will remain protected due to gridlock.”

Oppenheimer also believes a Harris win could negatively impact Humana (NYSE:HUM) in particular, as “the FTC’s antitrust approach would continue to make a large-scale combination challenging.” It added that a Harris win could also see weakness in Medicare advantage stocks, which includes Humana (HUM), UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) and CVS Health (NYSE:CVS), in the near term.

Conversely, Oppenheimer said a Trump win coupled with the Republicans taking control of the Senate and House control up in the air would leave “healthcare services stock with some uncertainty around whether gridlock persists or Republicans gain complete control in Washington.”

In this case, the bank said, “the market should reflect some chance the GOP gets full control,” which should favor healthcare insurers such as Humana (HUM), UnitedHealth (UNH) and CVS Health (CVS), but negatively impact Medicaid, hospital and Obamacare exchange-exposed stocks such as Centene (CNC), Molina (MOH), HCA Healthcare (HCA) and Oscar Health (OSCR).

Oppenheimer added a Trump win could also increase the chances of a pairing between Cigna (NYSE:CI) and Humana (HUM) due to a probable moderation of the FTC’s antitrust stance. Other stocks likely benefitting from a more moderate FTC include CVS Health (CVS) and UnitedHealth (UNH).