IBKR: Harris’ win odds on prediction platform jumps 6 pp to 44% on $40M volume

Interactive Brokers (IBKR) on Friday said Vice President Kamala Harris’ odds of winning the U.S. presidential race leapt by 6 percentage points to 44% on its prediction platform, marking a “surprisingly ferocious comeback” in a 24-hour timespan.

The probability climbed on trading volume of ~$40 million on IBKR’s (IBKR) ForecastTrader prediction market, Thomas Peterffy, founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers, said in a statement.

That amount is “a lot of money at stake against a sea of traders on the platform, who, for over a week, have been at a consensus of 62%, +/-2% for [former President Donald] Trump, and 38%, +/-2% for Harris,” Peterffy said. He said the ForecastTrader platform has more than 100,000 participants.

Trump’s odds of winning re-election next week are higher than Harris’ on various betting markets, while national polling puts the contest at a virtual toss-up. Harris held a less than 1% advantage over Trump in national polls, according to the New York Times on Friday, noting Trump has closed the gap recently.

In the stock market Friday, major indexes (SP500)(COMP:IND)(DJI) rose, buoyed by share-price surges in Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC) after their quarterly financial updates. Investors also largely looked past an expected hit to payrolls growth due to hurricanes and a machinists’ strike at Boeing (BA).

For investors looking to track the elections through market instruments, here are some politically driven Republican and Democratic exchange-traded funds:

God Bless America ETF (YALL)

American Conservative Values ETF (ACVF)

Point Bridge America First ETF (MAGA)

Democratic Large Cap Core ETF (DEMZ)

Unusual Whales Subversive Democratic ETF (NANC)

Unusual Whales Subversive Republican ETF (KRUZ)

Readers interested in investing topics tied to the upcoming election can read coverage from Seeking Alpha’s Investing Forum: Election 2024 event; please visit this page.

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