Earnings Call Insights: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Q4 2025
Management View
- CEO James Dimon opened with a broad assessment of the macro environment, stating “in the short run, call it, 6 months and 9 months and even a year, it’s pretty positive. Consumers have money. There’s still jobs, even though it’s weakened a little bit. There’s a huge — there is a lot of stimulus coming from the One Big Beautiful Bill. Deregulation is a plus in general, not just for banks but banks will be able to redeploy capital.” Dimon also emphasized ongoing investments and competitive positioning, noting, “we’re opening rural branches, … more branches in foreign countries. We’re building better payment systems. … We’re adding AI across the company. And those are all opportunities.”
- CFO Jeremy Barnum reported, “This quarter, the firm reported net income of $13 billion and EPS of $4.63 with an ROTCE of 18%. These results included the previously announced reserve build of $2.2 billion in CCB related to the forward purchase commitment of the Apple Card portfolio.” Barnum added, “Revenue of $46.8 billion was up 7% year-on-year on higher markets revenue as well as higher asset management fees and auto lease income.”
- Barnum highlighted the Apple Card acquisition, referring to its economic attractiveness and innovation potential. He explained, “from a narrow perspective, just in terms of the portfolio and the transaction, this is an economically compelling transaction for us as a co-brand deal. … The integration is going to take 2 years for a reason. We feel confident that we’ll get it done successfully.”
Outlook
- Barnum stated, “We continue to expect NII ex Markets to be about $95 billion. The drivers we explained last quarter remain largely the same… the outlook follows the forward curve, which currently assumes 2 rate cuts. Offsetting that is the expectation for continued loan growth in card, although slightly less than last year as the revolve normalization tailwind is behind us as well as modest firm-wide deposit growth.”
- He added, “We expect total NII to be about $103 billion, for the year as a function of markets, NII increasing to about $8 billion due to lower funding costs from the rate cuts, which you should think of as being primarily offset in NIR.”
- For expenses, Barnum projected, “we expect 2026 adjusted expense to be about $105 billion. Broadly, the expense growth continues to align with where we see the greatest opportunities across our businesses.”
- Card net charge-off rate guidance for 2026 was set at “approximately 3.4% on favorable delinquency trends driven by the continued resilience of the consumer.”
Financial Results
- The firm reported net income of $13 billion and EPS of $4.63. Revenue was $46.8 billion, up 7% year-on-year. Full year net income was $57.5 billion, EPS $20.18, revenue $185 billion, and ROTCE 20%.
- CCB revenue was $19.4 billion, up 6% year-on-year. CIB revenue was $19.4 billion, up 10% year-on-year. Asset & Wealth Management revenue was $6.5 billion, up 13% year-on-year, with long-term net inflows of $52 billion for the quarter.
- The CET1 ratio at quarter end was 14.5%.
Q&A
- Glenn Schorr, Evercore: Asked about stablecoin and deposit risk. Barnum responded, “as a company, we’ve been quite involved in the whole blockchain technology space for some time. … we see the interesting developments in the space, the technological innovation, we’re engaged, we’re watching, we care.” Dimon added, “That letter was signed by the ABA, the FSF, the ICBA, it was all banks. It wasn’t a handful of banks.”
- Kenneth Usdin, Bernstein: Inquired about fee drivers and expense growth. Barnum said, “we’re obviously optimistic on investment banking fees generally. … on the rest of the kind of fee items, the sort of broad wealth management, asset management across both CCB and AWM, again, we’re very optimistic about the position of the franchise there and the associated implications for fees.”
- John McDonald, Truist: Questioned the Apple Card acquisition and APR cap risk. Barnum called the deal “economically compelling,” and regarding price controls, stated, “the provision of the service will change dramatically. Specifically, people will lose access to credit… that’s a pretty severely negative consequence for consumers and frankly, probably also a negative consequence for the economy as a whole right now.”
- Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley: Asked about co-brand cards and integration. Dimon confirmed, “They actually built a completely different, integrated into iOS tech stack and they did a good job. … we have to integrate that inside our system. And to do that, it’s going to take 2 years and cost a bit of money to meet the terms and standards.”
Sentiment Analysis
- Analysts’ tone was probing and sometimes skeptical, especially regarding expense growth, Apple Card integration, and regulatory risks. Questions were direct about the impact of APR caps, fee drivers, and capital deployment.
- Management maintained a confident, though at times defensive, tone. Dimon and Barnum emphasized investment and growth opportunities, but also acknowledged risks: “So as much as like the technology is cool and there’s interesting stuff there, in the end, you have to ask yourself, how does this actually make the consumer experience better.”
- Compared to the previous quarter, analyst sentiment shifted to increased scrutiny on regulatory and expense risks, while management’s optimism remained prominent but with more direct acknowledgment of macro and regulatory uncertainties.
Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison
- Guidance for NII ex Markets remained at $95 billion, consistent with last quarter’s preliminary view.
- Expense outlook for 2026 was formalized at $105 billion, higher than the previous quarter’s indication that consensus of $100 billion was too low.
- Management’s tone shifted slightly to more detailed explanations of technology and Apple Card integration costs.
- Analysts maintained focus on regulatory risks, expense growth, and new product integration, though the current quarter saw a sharper edge to questions regarding expense investment and regulatory overhangs impacting card business.
- Key metrics such as net income, EPS, and revenue were lower quarter-on-quarter, reflecting reserve build and integration impacts.
Risks and Concerns
- Regulatory risk from potential credit card APR caps and stablecoin competition were highlighted as threats to the business model. Barnum stated, “if it happens the way it was described, it would be dramatic.”
- Integration risk from the Apple Card acquisition, including technology and customer service standards, was underscored as a two-year process with elevated investment.
- Expense growth and capital deployment drew analyst scrutiny, with management reiterating a strategy of investing for long-term opportunity but noting that “the environment is only getting more competitive and so it remains critical to ensure that we are making the necessary investments to secure our position against both traditional and nontraditional competitors.”
Final Takeaway
JPMorgan Chase & Co. management outlined continued optimism for 2026, guiding to $95 billion in NII ex Markets while formalizing a $105 billion expense outlook driven by technology investments, new product integrations, and franchise expansion. The Apple Card acquisition and evolving regulatory environment were central topics, with management emphasizing both the opportunities and challenges ahead. Ongoing resilience in consumers and robust engagement across business lines support a strategic focus on growth and competitive positioning, despite persistent macro and regulatory uncertainties.