JPMorgan Chase signals $95.5B NII and $1.50 dividend amid upbeat markets and robust loan growth

Earnings Call Insights: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Q2 2025

Management View

• Chairman & CEO James Dimon highlighted key regulatory, capital deployment, and business growth themes, stating that “regulators step back and kind of look at the big picture now, not just one picture, so nothing has happened yet. I think they should be looking at all these things” and emphasized the importance of adaptive capital allocation, organic and inorganic growth, and potential acquisitions only with a high bar for strategic fit.
• Dimon addressed the bank’s active approach to stablecoins and deposit tokens, emphasizing that JPMorgan is “going to be involved in both JPMorgan deposit coin and stablecoins to understand it, to be good at it. We don’t know exactly — I think they’re real, but I don’t know why you’d want a stablecoin as opposed to just a payment.”
• Executive VP & CFO Jeremy Barnum reported, “This quarter, the firm reported net income of $15 billion, EPS of $5.24 on revenue of $45.7 billion, with an ROTCE of 21%. These results included an income tax benefit of $774 million.”
• Barnum further stated, “We ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 15%, down 40 basis points versus the prior quarter as net income was more than offset by capital distributions and higher RWA.”
• Barnum announced, “Our new SCB also reflects the Board’s intention to increase the dividend to $1.50 per share in the third quarter.”

Outlook

• Barnum formalized updated guidance, stating, “we now expect NII ex Markets to be approximately $92 billion, with the increase driven by changes in the forward curve and strong deposit growth in Payments, Security Services as well as balanced growth in Card. Total NII guidance is now about $95.5 billion, implying $3.5 billion of Markets NII.”
• On adjusted expense, “we now expect it to be about $95.5 billion, primarily driven by the impact of the weaker dollar, which is largely bottom line neutral.”
• The guidance for Card net charge-off rate remains at “approximately 3.6%.”
• Management emphasized a more upbeat market sentiment and robust investment banking pipelines, with Barnum noting, “the outlook along with the market tone and sentiment is notably more upbeat.”

Financial Results

• The company reported revenue of $45.7 billion, net income of $15 billion, and EPS of $5.24 for the quarter.
• ROTCE stood at 21%.
• Net interest income (NII) excluding Markets was down $185 million, or 1%, primarily due to lower rates and deposit margin compression.
• Non-interest revenue excluding Markets was down $6.3 billion, or 31%, but adjusting for prior-year one-time items, was up $1 billion, or 8%, driven by higher Asset Management fees, auto lease income, investment banking, and payments.
• Markets revenue rose $1.1 billion, or 15%.
• Expenses totaled $23.8 billion, up $66 million, mainly due to higher compensation and technology.
• Credit costs were $2.8 billion, with net charge-offs of $2.4 billion and a net reserve build of $439 million.
• CCB net income was $5.2 billion on revenue of $18.8 billion, up 6% year-on-year.
• CIB net income was $6.7 billion on revenue of $19.5 billion, up 9% year-on-year.
• AWM net income was $1.5 billion, revenue of $5.8 billion, up 10% year-on-year; AUM reached $4.3 trillion.
• Corporate reported net income of $1.7 billion; revenue was $1.5 billion.

Q&A

• Christopher Edward McGratty, KBW: Asked about optimism on deregulation and uses of capital; Barnum responded that “everything is on the table as it always is, and that includes potentially inorganic things,” and Dimon stressed the need for holistic regulatory review.
• Betsy Lynn Graseck, Morgan Stanley: Probed on RWA drivers and stablecoin strategy; Barnum said the wholesale lending increase was “all of the above” and Dimon explained the bank’s approach to stablecoins and open banking.
• Steven A. Alexopoulos, TD Cowen: Inquired about inorganic AI opportunities; Dimon stated, “There’s no reason for us to own one. At least we can’t figure out why that would make sense.”
• Ebrahim Huseini Poonawala, BofA: Asked about middle market and credit quality; Barnum stated, “we continue to struggle to see signs of weakness. We just — the consumer basically seems to be fine.”
• John Eamon McDonald, Truist: Questioned NPAs jump in consumers; Barnum clarified it was due to “Home Lending customers in the L.A. area, using our forbearance availability as a result of the wildfires.”
• Ken Usdin, Bernstein Autonomous: Asked about Sapphire price changes and card strategy; Barnum said, “we feel really great about is the dramatic increase in the customer value proposition associated with the Card.”

Sentiment Analysis

• Analysts adopted a neutral to slightly positive tone, focusing on regulatory optimism, robust pipelines, and capital deployment, but pressed on details regarding inorganic growth and credit quality.
• Management’s tone in prepared remarks was confident, with frequent references to being “happy” or “very happy” with results; in Q&A, responses remained confident but occasionally hedged, especially on market and regulatory outlooks.
• Compared to the previous quarter, management’s tone shifted from caution to greater optimism, citing better market sentiment and pipeline activity. Analysts’ questioning was more focused on growth and strategic deployment than on downside risks.

Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison

• Guidance for NII ex Markets increased from $90 billion to $92 billion, and total NII from $94.5 billion to $95.5 billion.
• Dividend guidance increased from $1.40 to $1.50 per share for the third quarter.
• ROTCE remained strong at 21% versus the prior quarter’s 21%.
• CIB revenue growth and market sentiment improved, with more upbeat commentary on investment banking pipelines compared to a cautious stance last quarter.
• Analysts this quarter focused more on growth opportunities, regulatory change, and capital allocation, whereas last quarter’s questions leaned more toward uncertainty and risk mitigation.

Risks and Concerns

• Management acknowledged the dynamic environment, with Barnum stating “navigating uncertainty is the norm for both us and our clients.”
• Dimon highlighted ongoing regulatory complexity and the need for broad reform, warning that piecemeal approaches could hinder competitiveness.
• Credit risks remain, particularly in specific portfolios, but guidance for net charge-off rates was maintained.
• Analyst concerns included the durability of trading revenues, regulatory change timelines, and potential for loan growth normalization.

Final Takeaway

JPMorgan Chase’s Q2 2025 call reflected a notably more optimistic stance, underscored by raised NII guidance and a planned dividend increase, while management reiterated disciplined capital deployment and readiness to pursue both organic and select inorganic growth. Market sentiment and business pipelines were described as robust, with no signs of emerging credit stress, supporting the company’s confident outlook for the remainder of the year.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript