Earnings Call Insights: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Q3 2025
Management View
- CEO Jamie Dimon noted the company retained its “#1 position in retail deposit share in a relatively flat deposit market based on FDIC data, marking our fifth consecutive year leading the industry.” Dimon also emphasized the success of the Sapphire refresh, stating “this has already been the best year ever for new account acquisitions for our Sapphire portfolio.”
- CFO Jeremy Barnum reported, “the firm reported net income of $14.4 billion and EPS of $5.07 with an ROTCE of 20%. Revenue of $47.1 billion was up 9% year-on-year, predominantly driven by higher markets revenue as well as higher fees across asset management, investment banking and payments.” Barnum pointed out that “the increase in NII driven by the impact of balance sheet growth and mix was offset by the impact of lower rates.”
- Barnum highlighted credit costs of $3.4 billion, with net charge-offs of $2.6 billion and a net reserve build of $810 million. He noted a “couple of instances of apparent fraud in certain secured lending facilities” impacting wholesale charge-offs and stated, “credit performance remains in line with our expectations.”
Outlook
- Barnum provided updated guidance, stating “we expect fourth quarter NII ex Markets to be approximately $23.5 billion and fourth quarter total NII to be about $25 billion. We expect fourth quarter adjusted expense to be approximately $24.5 billion, implying $95.9 billion for the full year.”
- For 2026, Barnum announced “the central case for NII ex Markets in 2026, which is about $95 billion,” but cautioned that this is a preliminary view. He added, “for expenses, completing the budget cycle will be even more important, which is why we are not providing an update today.”
Financial Results
- The firm ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 14.8%, down 30 basis points versus the prior quarter. Barnum attributed the movement to “higher RWA…primarily driven by increases in wholesale lending across both Banking and Markets as well as other markets activities.”
- CCB reported net income of $5 billion, with revenue of $19.5 billion up 9% year-on-year. Barnum indicated that “revenue of $47.1 billion was up 9% year-on-year, predominantly driven by higher markets revenue as well as higher fees across asset management, investment banking and payments.”
- CIB reported net income of $6.9 billion, with revenue of $19.9 billion up 17% year-on-year, supported by “higher revenues across markets, payments, investment banking and security services.” IB fees were up 16% year-on-year, with “particular strength in equity underwriting as the IPO market was active.”
- Asset & Wealth Management posted record revenue of $6.1 billion, up 12% year-on-year. Long-term net inflows were $72 billion for the quarter. AUM reached $4.6 trillion, up 18% year-on-year, and client assets of $6.8 trillion were up 20%.
Q&A
- John McDonald, Truist Securities: Asked about retail deposit growth assumptions. Barnum responded, “the personal savings rate is a little bit lower than expected. Consumer spending remained robust, while income was a bit lower…equity market performance has been particularly strong, which is driving flows into investments, and we are capturing that in our Wealth Management business.”
- Glenn Schorr, Evercore: Sought clarity on credit fundamentals in broadly syndicated, high-yield, and private debt. Barnum clarified, “we’re seeing very healthy deal flow. We’re seeing acquisition finance come back…our kind of product-agnostic credit strategy across the whole continuum is playing out very nicely.”
- Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley: Asked about reserve build and capital utilization. Barnum explained, “as we’ve sort of started doing some more of these direct lending deals, when we put those deals on the books, they come with quite significant day 1 reserve balances.”
- Ebrahim Poonawala, BofA: Inquired about macro uncertainty and AI-driven productivity. Barnum stated, “the consumer is resilient, spending is strong and delinquency rates are actually coming in below expectations,” and regarding AI, “the proof is going to be in the pudding in terms of actually slowing the growth of expenses.”
- Michael Mayo, Wells Fargo: Questioned risk from lending to NDFIs after the Tricolor incident. Barnum said, “the vast majority of that type of lending that we do is highly secured or in some way, structured or securitized…I’m not sure that our lending to the NBFI community is an area of risk that we see as more elevated than other areas.”
- Gerard Cassidy, RBC: Asked about mortgage rates and regulatory changes. Dimon suggested, “reduce the cost of mortgages 30 to 40 basis points overall without creating any additional risk.”
Sentiment Analysis
- Analysts pressed on credit normalization, deposit growth, and expense outlook, with a slightly skeptical tone around potential risks in wholesale credit and NDFIs.
- Management maintained a confident but measured stance, frequently using phrases like “we remain kind of quite confident about the overall long-term trajectory” and “the story that we’re trying to tell is one that’s anchored on the current facts.”
- Compared to last quarter, both analysts and management displayed slightly more caution regarding macro risks and credit cycle uncertainties, while management continued to emphasize resilience and robust underlying fundamentals.
Quarter-over-Quarter Comparison
- Guidance for NII ex Markets increased from $92 billion full-year 2025 to a preliminary $95 billion for 2026, with a continued focus on deposit growth and expense management.
- Wholesale charge-offs rose due to fraud incidents, a notable shift from stability in the prior quarter.
- The tone reflected increased attention to potential credit risks, regulatory impacts, and expense growth, compared to the more upbeat outlook previously.
- Analysts’ questions moved from regulatory optimism last quarter to a heightened focus on deposit, NBFI exposure, and the trajectory of expense growth.
- Management’s confidence in consumer credit and deposit franchise remained strong, but with added caution regarding the timing of growth inflections.
Risks and Concerns
- Apparent fraud in secured lending facilities contributed to elevated wholesale charge-offs.
- Management is “closely watching the potentially softening labor market,” noting that “the macro environment shift has just slightly pushed out some of the growth inflection dynamics.”
- Uncertainties around NDFI lending and future credit cycles were addressed, with Dimon stating, “when you see one cockroach, there are probably more.”
- Expense growth remains a focus, with Barnum highlighting labor inflation and ongoing investments as upward pressures.
Final Takeaway
JPMorgan Chase highlighted continued strength in consumer and wholesale banking, with resilient credit performance and strong fee-driven revenue across key businesses. The firm introduced a preliminary 2026 NII ex Markets target of $95 billion, underpinned by healthy new account acquisitions and robust deposit and wealth management activity. Management acknowledged macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly around labor markets and fraud-related credit events, but emphasized confidence in the long-term growth trajectory, ongoing expense discipline, and the ability to deploy capital for both lending and shareholder returns.