Trading volume on Kalshi during the NFL football season has already exceeded the total volume the platform saw for the 2024 U.S. election cycle.
The prediction market platform officially reported that its trading volume for the opening week of the NFL 2025 season exceeded $441 million, with nearly $200 million of that occurring on Sunday alone. Notably, the introduction of prop-style and parlay-style contracts just ahead of the NFL season allowed Kalshi to create buzz in the sports betting world and is believed to have contributed significantly to the trading volume surge.
Checking in on the second week of the NFL season, Needham said its tracking indicated that week two NFL volume on Kalshi, from last week through the start of the Sunday Night Football game, was $205 million, similar to the $197 million for week one of the season.
“We estimate the $200M stated volume translates into ~7.5% market share of regulated OSB + Kalshi (see math below). However, we assume Kalshi volume skews towards unregulated markets, which would mean the market share in regulated states is <7.5%,” highlighted analyst Bernie McTernan.
Kalshi is a privately owned company, primarily founded and controlled by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, who started the company in 2018.
Earlier in the month, Robinhood Markets (HOOD) announced the launch of pro and college football prediction markets directly within the Robinhood app. Other companies active in offering prediction markets include Polymarket, TradeX, PredictRAM, Crypto.com, Interactive Brokers (IBKR), NinjaTrader, Webull, Manifold, PredictIt, and the Iowa Electronic Markets.
Shares of DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG) are down 5.0% over the last week, while FanDuel owner Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) is off 3.5%.