Kalshi submitted a new type of contract with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that includes multiple parts and payouts determined by multiplying the odds of each component of the bet.
In its filing with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Kalshi defined contract “outcomes” as a set of specific achievements, results, or events specified that may include game outcomes, player statistics, team statistics, championships, awards, season statistics, playoff outcomes, draft outcomes, and milestones. That broad definition opens the door for contracts that resemble parlay or prop bets made on sports betting apps.
The Kalshi contract’s payout structure is still characterized by the payment of an absolute amount to the holder of one side of the option and no payment to the counterparty. During the time that trading on the contract is open, members can adjust their positions and trade freely.
Parlays are a high-margin revenue stream for traditional sportsbooks, with hold rates typically well above the hold rates in single games, point spreads, or player events.
Kalshi and other prediction markets are considered a competitive threat to DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG), FanDuel (NYSE:FLUT), and BetMGM (MGM) (OTCPK:GMVHF). However, FanDuel (NYSE:FLUT) has entered a strategic partnership with CME Group (CME) to create a platform that allows retail users to bet on the outcomes of financial market events. The joint venture is set up to operate as a non-clearing futures commission merchant. Pending regulatory review, the launch could be later in 2025. That partnership could include sports events in the future.