Kalshi NFL prediction market trading volume between the Thursday night game and Sunday night game was up 19% week-over-week, according to Bank of America’s tracking. The strong volume could be an indication that Kalshi’s week 6 sequential decline was just an aberration, not a sign of a lack of momentum with customers.
Analyst Julie Hoover said the big increase in activity was driven primarily by the high drama Giants-Broncos Sunday afternoon game, which had $64 million in volume all by itself. The single-game tally was the second highest of the NFL season.
“Usually standalone NFL games account for nearly 50% of overall NFL volume, so this much volume in a Sunday afternoon game is atypical and likely driven by the big comeback and several lead changes in the final minutes,” noted Hoover.
Sportsbooks are expected to have had a below-average hold rate for week 7 of the NFL season because the favorites won all three of the most heavily bet games. FanDuel (FLUT) and DraftKings (DKNG) are estimated by Needham to have had the highest hold rates through six weeks of the NFL season in New York. Rush Street Interactive’s BetRivers (RSI), Fanatics’ (FANA) sports betting app, and Caesars Entertainment’s (CZR) Caesar Sportsbook rounded out the top five in terms of estimated hold rates, while BetMGM (MGM) (OTCPK:GMVHF) ranked last. Typically, the New York sports betting data is fairly consistent with the broad U.S. hold rates, which feed into corporate earnings.