Lilly tops Morgan Stanley’s biopharma pick list for 2025
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Morgan Stanley has chosen Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) as its top biopharma pick for 2025 and rated another nine names in the space as overweight.
The investment bank said in a note that it continues to believe “diabesity is set to become among the largest pharma categories of all time,” adding oral GLP-1 drugs such as Lilly’s (LLY) orforglipron will be needed amid ongoing supply constraints for injectable GLP-1s.
“We see an opportunity for LLY to differentiate on multiple fronts. We expect orforglipron to reach the market at least ~2 years ahead of competitor oral drugs, giving LLY a significant time-to-market advantage,” Morgan Stanley said.
The bank said it’s modeled a 2026 U.S. launch for orforglipron, with 2033 diabesity sales of around $10B, risk-adjusted by a 70% probability of success. In its bull case scenario, the bank estimates the drug can grab around 75% of the oral GLP-1 market, with unadjusted 2033 worldwide sales of $31B.
Morgan Stanley also rated large caps AbbVie (ABBV), Regeneron (REGN) and Royalty Pharma (RPRX) overweight. It added it was likewise bullish on small/mid-caps Alumis (ALMS), Biohaven (BHVN), Structure Therapeutics (GPCR), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Arcus Biosciences (RCUS), rating all five overweight.