Nvidia (NVDA) is set to report fourth-quarter results after the close today, with the stock up 54.5% over the past year amid continued enthusiasm around artificial intelligence demand.
Despite the rally, Seeking Alpha’s Quant system assigns Nvidia a Hold rating, even as Wall Street maintains a Strong Buy consensus.
Nvidia Quant Rating History (Seeking Alpha)
The Quant model highlights Nvidia’s exceptional growth, profitability, strong momentum, and positive earnings revisions, but flags the stock’s elevated valuation relative to peers, suggesting a more balanced risk-reward profile at current levels.
Wall Street, by contrast, remains firmly bullish. The average price target of $254.54 implies roughly 30% upside. Consensus estimates call for EPS of $1.54 (+73% Y/Y) on revenue of $66.12B (+68% Y/Y).
While most analysts anticipate robust results amid continued investment in computing infrastructure, investors are increasingly debating whether elevated valuations and heavy AI spending can be sustained.
“NVIDIA remains the market leader in AI hardware and remains a very profitable company, showing highly compelling growth. And yet, the stock has moved nowhere for half a year or so. The market isn’t very enthusiastic about NVIDIA right now, which may be due to expectations of a growth slowdown in the current year – revenues will still expand nicely, but less than last year, at least according to the analyst community,” SA analyst Jonathan Weber said.
The options market is pricing in about a 5% move in either direction following earnings. Notably, Nvidia shares have declined the day after each of the past two earnings reports, underscoring the risk that even strong results may not guarantee a positive reaction.
NVDA shares were up +2.4% at $197.48 ahead of the results.