Nvidia’s results and guidance were exceptional. Wall Street says ignore the noise.
Keep calm and carry on.
While some investors may have wanted more from Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), the vast majority of Wall Street was more than happy with the Jensen Huang-led company after it reported fiscal third-quarter results and guidance that highlighted its dominance in the artificial intelligence spending boom.
Shares fell roughly 0.7% in premarket trading on Thursday. Other semiconductor companies, such as AMD (AMD), ARM (ARM), ASML (ASML), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Intel (INTC) saw mild selling as well.
“NVIDIA’s FQ3 results were very solid … with record Datacenter revenues at ~$30.8B (Street at ~$29.1B) amid continued strong demand for their Hopper products, with H200 growing to double-digit billions,” Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon wrote in a note to clients.
Rasgon, who raised his price target to $175 from $155 after the results, said while bears may point to a “smaller-than-typical guidance beat,” lower networking attach rates and a slide in gross margins for next year, it’s still “respectable,” given the supply constraints and possibly conservative.
“To that end, Blackwell demand still appears off the chart, and is likely to exceed supply for some time to come with the prospect for a very strong forthcoming datacenter year still easily in the cards,” Rasgon, who has an Outperform rating on Nvidia, continued. “And while of course Jensen will Jensen, he did not sound concerned that the need for compute would be easing anytime soon, and the sheer complexity of what the company is accomplishing continues to significantly broaden their moat vs what the competition has. Overall, the story still looks well intact.”
Seeking Alpha analyst Michael Del Monte said the results were “incredible” and pointed to the fact that companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA) and Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) are investing hundreds of billions of dollars combined on AI infrastructure.
“I do not expect demand for these GPUs to slow down anytime soon, whether they’re the H100/H200, or B100,” he said via email.
Guidance, results
Looking to the fourth-quarter of fiscal 2025, Nvidia expects to generate $37.5B in revenue, plus or minus 2%. Analysts were forecasting $37.1B in revenue. However, some buy-side estimates called for revenue for the next quarter to be as high as $41B.
The company also said it sees the demand for Blackwell exceeding supply for several quarters in fiscal 2026. It will continue to ship both Hopper and Blackwell shipments in the coming fourth-quarter of fiscal 2025, though it expects both to have “certain supply constraints.”
Nvidia added on its earnings call that it is on track to exceed revenue expectations from Blackwell, and margins for the product line should hit the mid-70s when ramped up.
More praise
Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar said Nvidia is likely being conservative with its guidance, given it’s going through a product transition.
“Our suspicion is that NVDA’s visibility extends into the vast majority of calendar 2025,” Kumar, who reiterated his Overweight rating and $175 price target, wrote. “We also continue to believe that starting April, the beat cadence will be quite a bit higher than the $2B cadence NVDA has more or less maintained thus far.”
Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya said the stock could “churn” in the near-term on the “lack of sizzle,” but Nvidia is still the undisputed leader in moving $1T of legacy infrastructure into accelerated systems. It’s also the fastest growing mega-cap stock, and it has “solid” free cash flow that should “provide adequate firepower for cash returns and inorganic investments.” He reiterated his Buy rating and $190 price target.
Citi analyst Atif Malik reiterated his Buy rating and $175 price target and opened up a 90-Day Upside catalyst watch, as Huang is set to give the keynote address at January’s Consumer Electronics Show.
“We expect the management to move the Blackwell product sales expectations higher in the Jan-Q; call out the GM% trough in the Apr-Q; and talk about inference led inflection in AI robotics around warehouses, manufacturing, and humanoid AI robots,” Malik wrote.
Seeking Alpha analyst Jeremy of Kumquat Research was a bit more tepid and said the results were strong as demand from hyperscalers shows no signs of slowing down.
“NVDA remains a stock to own in this AI-fueled market, but the aura of invincibility might be showing cracks,” he said via email.