October vehicle sales maintain steady SAAR pace of 15.8M

With the help of healthy inventory, heightened incentives, and two additional selling days this month, new vehicle sales are expected to remain steady in October at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (“SAAR”) of 15.8M, according to recent data from Cox Automotive.

“The [annual] sales pace has been bouncing between 15-16 million for over 18 months, and this month is expected to follow the same trend,” said senior economist at Cox, Charlie Chesbrough. “This month has seen both headwinds and tailwinds. The recent extreme weather events in the Southeast have suppressed some business operations, which will cut into the sales total in October. On the other hand, recent interest rate cuts and stock market gains have likely provided some market support.”

Incentives for new vehicles reached a peak in September, according to Kelley Blue Book, coinciding with an increase in new vehicle listing prices.

According to current data compiled by Cox, compact SUV/crossover vehicles remain the most popular, though the pace has slowed from October 2023. Sales of mid-sized SUV/crossovers are expected to reach 195K in October, a marginal increase from 192K a year ago. Mid-sized vehicles showed the most significant improvement from a year ago, with sales increasing by 17% to an estimated 80K in October.